Severe Storm Risk - Schooleys Mountain, NJ

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO MID ATLANTIC AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUMMARY Scattered strong thunderstorm development is likely today through tonight, perhaps including a few organizing clusters, posing a risk for severe wind and hail across parts of the southern Great Lakes into Mid Atlantic and portions of the northern Great Plains into Upper Midwest. PA to Delmarva A broad upper ridge remains over the TN Valley, with fast zonal flow stretching across the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic region. Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing this morning over western PA and northern MD. These storms will progress southeastward today across an air mass affected by storms last evening, where there is uncertainty how much destabilization can occur. Damaging winds will be possible in those areas where sufficient heating can occur, especially by early afternoon. WI to PA A common scenario in recent CAM solutions is that a mid-level speed max associated with convection over MN/IA will track across WI and into Lower MI by mid/late afternoon. Morning convection will result in an outflow boundary from southeast WI into southern Lower MI, likely providing the focus for rapid afternoon thunderstorm development. Ample low-level moisture/CAPE and favorable westerly flow aloft suggest an initial risk of supercells, but increasing linear organization with time. Storms will track into northern IN/OH by late afternoon, and eventually into western NY/PA this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern with this activity. ND/MN Morning water vapor imagery suggests a strong shortwave trough lifting northeastward across WY. This feature will move into the Dakotas today, aiding the development of intense thunderstorms over eastern ND by mid-afternoon. Initial supercells will be capable of large hail and a tornado or two. Activity will likely persist through much of the evening, tracking eastward across parts of northern/central MN and perhaps into northern WI. Damaging winds and hail would be the main concerns during that period.