Severe Storm Risk - Shrewsbury, PA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC SUMMARY Scattered wind damage remains possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic and west-central Texas through the remainder of the evening. Large hail and damaging gusts may still occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota and Montana. West-Central Texas A forward-propagating MCS has evolved this evening across the TX Big Country into the Low Rolling Plains with gusts of 62 and 75 mph reported with the system over the past hour. The inflow air mass remains hot and relatively moist with latest objective analysis indicating MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. The KFDR VWP indicates a belt of 30-40 kt northerly winds in the 4-6 km AGL layer, which is likely enhancing vertical shear. This, when coupled with the presence of a relatively deep and well-mixed PBL, will continue to support severe wind gusts and sporadic hail occurrences for the next few hours as the MCS continues south into the Concho Valley. For additional near-term details, see MCD 1517. Mid-Atlantic Earlier, more discrete storms have gradually evolved into a larger-scale complex over southeast PA with that system tracking east along a subtle boundary that extends into central NJ. Additional storm clustering is noted farther south, near Baltimore, with latest model guidance suggesting additional consolidation of storms over the next hour or two across the Delmarva into the DE River Valley. The 00Z IAD sampled a moist and moderately unstable air mass, which featured steep lapse rates in the lowest 1-1.5 km AGL. While vertical shear is relatively weak, the steep lapse rates will support episodic cold-pool organization with an attendant risk for damaging winds for the next 1-3 hours. For additional near-term information, see MCD 1518. Montana and North Dakota Mesoanalysis places a surface front from western ND into south-central MT, with steep lapse rates and locally higher boundary-layer moisture contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong instability in the vicinity of the boundary over northwest ND into northeast MT. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening to the east of the boundary in western ND amidst a warmer and slightly drier boundary layer as sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding. The development of a nocturnal low-level jet may support some moistening late this evening into tonight; however, increasing convective inhibition may become more prohibitive to surface-based storm sustenance upon nightfall. Nonetheless, isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts remain possible with the ongoing storms for the next 1-3 hours. Farther west, a separate thunderstorm regime is ongoing to the north of the surface front in central MT. The short-term models suggest a few of those storms could persist through the remainder of the evening with isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts possible.