Severe Storm Risk - Sidney, NE

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected this evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible from parts of the northern Gulf Coast States into the southern Appalachians and Carolinas. Central and Northern Plains The latest water vapor imagery shows west-northwesterly flow over much of the northern U.S., with a low-amplitude shortwave trough moving through the flow in the northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front is advancing southeastward through the Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F. The RAP has an axis of moderate to strong instability located from central Nebraska northeastward into eastern South Dakota, along which MLCAPE is estimated in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis with scattered storms ongoing to the west of the instability max in western Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota. These storms are located along the eastern edge of an elevated mixed layer extending eastward from the central Rockies. Near the storms, the RAP is estimating 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8.5 C/km range. In addition, the North Platte WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 50 knots with significant directional shear evident in the lowest 3 km above ground level. This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts this evening. The more intense storms could produce hailstones exceeding 2 inches in diameter. Short-term model forecast suggest that the storms will continue to move east-southeastward toward the instability axis this evening, remaining relatively discrete. However, a transition to a broken line segment should eventually occur, which would result in a greater wind-damage threat. A few severe gusts above 75 mph will be possible. The severe threat should persist into the mid to late evening...See MCD 2019. Northern Gulf Coast States/Southern Appalachians/Carolinas The latest surface analysis shows a distinct outflow boundary from northern Alabama eastward into the western Carolinas. Strong to severe thunderstorms are ongoing near the outflow boundary. To the south of the boundary, surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and the RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Within the most unstable air, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 0-3 km lapse rate in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range, with precipitation water above 2 inches. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP in northeast Alabama has 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range. This environment will support a potential for severe wet downbursts for a couple more hours this evening.