Severe Storm Risk - Simms, TX

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a couple of tornadoes should occur this afternoon and evening across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Scattered severe thunderstorms are also expected across the northern/central High Plains, with large to very large hail and a tornado or two. 20z Update Central High Plains Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook. Strong to severe storms, including supercells, are developing across parts of WY and CO and should spread east/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and the discrete mode should favor significant severe hail with these storms into this evening. A tornado or two is also possible, focused mostly along the Cheyenne Ridge where stronger low-level shear is being observed. Mid Atlantic Several rounds of storms remain likely this afternoon and evening beneath the strong mid-level zonal flow aloft. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat with scattered but mostly cellular storms through this evening. A tornado or two remains possible. This is most likely near the warm front across northern NJ and southern Long Island where stronger and backed low-level flow is supporting 100-150 0-1km SRH. Some guidance shows an increase in storm clustering and stronger outflow gusts from northern VA into northern MD/DE and southern PA/NJ this evening. Should this occur, a locally more favorable corridor of damaging winds could develop. However, this remains very uncertain given the more scattered and cellular convection observed so far. TX/OK Some mode signal exists for isolated convective development this afternoon along the trailing outflow boundary across north TX from the morning MCS. Very large buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates could support hail with these storms. However, the lack of broader large-scale ascent suggests more isolated coverage through this evening.