Severe Storm Risk - Spirit Lake, IA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUMMARY Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible from the northern High Plains into parts of the Upper Midwest today into tonight. Isolated severe storms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening from the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas, the Sabine River Valley, parts of the Great Basin, and southeast Arizona. Northern High Plains into the Upper Midwest.. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is currently moving northeastward across eastern MT and western ND. This activity, which appears to be associated with a weak lead shortwave trough, is forecast to continue northeastward/eastward throughout the day. Storm severity will be limited by a lack of buoyancy and stronger ascent. However, cloud cover associated with this activity will aid in sharpening a warm front that is expected to develop as the cold front, which moved across SD last night, returns northward amid low-level moisture advection ahead of a stronger shortwave trough. Thunderstorms are first expected to develop back farther west across the northern High Plains, where moist easterly upslope flow combined with steep mid-level lapse will foster airmass destabilization. Moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE 1000 to 2000 J/kg) and moderate deep-layer shear (i.e. effective bulk shear of 40 to 50 kt) will support the potential for a few supercells capable of large hail and damaging gusts. One or more bowing segments could evolve from these supercells, with at least some potential for stronger, more organized line capable of gust over 70 mph to move across SD. However, confidence in a corridor of greater severe potential is currently limited, owing to the likelihood of complex interactions between outflows and new storm development over the MT/WY/SD border intersection vicinity. Thunderstorm development also appears probable farther east along the warm front during the evening as the low-level jet increases. Large to very large hail is possible with this activity initially, before upscale growth results in bowing clusters. Additional storms are possible near the lee trough from southeast WY into northeast CO and the NE Panhandle during the afternoon into evening. The local environment will feature a deep and well-mixed boundary layer, which will support the potential for a few severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Great Basin A modest shortwave trough is forecast to move through northeast NV and northern UT this afternoon and evening. Modest mid-level moisture and lift associated with this wave will support isolated to widely scatted thunderstorms atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer. Modest updrafts and high cloud bases atop very steep low-level lapse rates will support locally severe wind gusts with the strongest storms. Southern AZ Increased mid-level moisture will support thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of eastern AZ during the afternoon. Modest easterly mid-level flow is expected over the region, with some potential for the thunderstorms to progress westward into the lower elevations during the late afternoon. A few strong gusts are possible. East Texas into the Sabine River Valley Early-morning satellite imagery shows a broad upper low centered over the Mid-South, with a weak vorticity maximum pivoting through its southwest periphery over southern AR/northern LA. A few thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this vorticity maximum, with a gradual increase in thunderstorm coverage later this morning through the afternoon as ascent from this vorticity maximum interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place. Vertical shear is weak but some loosely organized cold pools may evolve, supporting the potential for sporadic damaging wind gusts. Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas A moist and moderately unstable air mass is expected to support scattered thunderstorm development across the region, beginning over the Blue Ridge Mountains during the early afternoon and expanding southward along the weak lee troughing into the central Carolinas. Some sea breeze development is possible from the VA Tidewater along the coastal Carolinas as well. Vertical shear will remain weak, limiting the potential for storm organization. Even so, the presence of steep low-level lapse rates will enhance downdraft potential, leading to the risk for sporadic damaging wind occurrences, especially with any storm clusters.