Severe Storm Risk - Sportsmen Acres, OK

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS AND OHIO VALLEY SUMMARY Severe storms are possible from the central High Plains into the Ohio Valley, mainly this afternoon into tonight. Large to very large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Some strong-tornado potential could develop across parts of Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana during the afternoon and early evening. Parts of MO into the Ohio Valley An all-hazards severe threat, including some conditional strong-tornado potential, is still evident from parts of MO into the Ohio Valley later today, though uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and most favored corridor of the greatest threat. No upgrade was made with this outlook, though greater tornado and/or wind probabilities may eventually be needed, depending on how the uncertainties are resolved. Guidance generally suggests that an MCV currently evolving across KS will move across central/northern MO through the morning, before moving into parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley through the afternoon. In association with the MCV, a surface low may deepen along a front and move across parts of central MO/IL. Guidance varies regarding the strength of the surface low, enhancement to low-level shear/SRH, and magnitude of destabilization in advance of the MCV. However, in general, rich moisture and enlarged low-level hodographs will support development of a storm cluster with embedded supercells and/or mesovortices, if sufficient diurnal destabilization occurs. Tornadoes and damaging winds could accompany any organized cells/clusters. Strong-tornado potential could evolve if any supercells can be sustained within this regime. In the wake of the MCV, relatively strong heating will support at least moderate destabilization along the trailing front across parts of central/southern MO. While some weakening/veering of low-level flow is expected after the passage of the MCV, deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized development along the boundary, which could pose an all-hazards severe threat from late afternoon into the evening from south-central MO into the lower OH Valley. Central High Plains into the Ozarks A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over WY will move toward KS/NE later today. A 35-50 kt midlevel jet maximum attendant to this shortwave will impinge upon parts of the central and southern High Plains. An outflow-influenced front will likely extend across parts of southern KS, with moist easterly flow expected north of this boundary by late afternoon, while strong heating will occur south of the boundary. Scattered afternoon storm development is expected within the post-frontal regime from southeast WY/northeast CO into western NE/KS. Moderate buoyancy and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell development, with a threat of large to very large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Widely scattered afternoon storm development will also be possible in the vicinity of the surface front, from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. Moderate to strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support supercell development with initial storms along the front, with some clustering possible later in the convective evolution. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and some tornado potential could accompany the strongest afternoon/evening storms. Late tonight into early Monday morning, guidance generally suggests development of one or more upscale growing clusters, evolving from either diurnal convection, or nocturnal elevated redevelopment. Swaths of strong to severe gusts could accompany any upscale growth, though guidance varies considerably regarding the most favorable corridors late in the forecast period.