Severe Storm Risk - Spout Springs, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR MAINE AND THE MID-ATLANTIC SUMMARY Scattered storms are expected across the Carolinas and southern Mid-Atlantic, as well as New England this afternoon and early evening, with damaging winds as the primary concern. Isolated strong to severe wind gusts are also possible in the central High Plains, southeast Texas and central Oregon, where isolated large hail will also be possible. Northern New England this afternoon Per water vapor imagery and morning upper air observations, a pronounced midlevel trough will progress east-northeastward from PA/NY/Saint Lawrence Valley toward New England through this afternoon. An associated surface cold front will likewise move eastward and provide a focus for thunderstorm development by early afternoon into Maine. A few cloud breaks developing from west-to-east through the afternoon will allow surface temperatures to warm into the 70s with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, resulting in MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer, south-southwesterly shear will be sufficient for a mix of clusters and supercells with a primary threat for occasional wind damage. Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening A pre-frontal band of convection is ongoing across southern VA, with a narrow zone of stronger surface heating/destabilization to the north of the thicker clouds from northern VA into MD/DE in advance of a cold front moving across PA. The southern fringe of the stronger (35-50 kt) midlevel flow extends to near the VA/NC border on the south side of the thicker cloud band. The ongoing convection is likely persist through the afternoon while spreading slowly southward. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, but deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for embedded/organized storms with occasional wind damage. Low-level shear will be marginally favorable for rotating storms and perhaps an isolated tornado. Southeast TX late this afternoon through late evening Strong surface heating is underway with a general confluence zone near the TX/LA border well to the west of highly-sheared Tropical Storm Bertha. As Bertha continues westward, this confluence zone should support thunderstorm development into southeast TX late this afternoon. Steering flow from the northeast at ~35 kt will favor storm clusters moving southwestward into a hot, deeply mixed boundary layer where buoyancy will be sufficient to maintain the storm clusters into late evening. A few strong-severe outflow gusts will be the main threats. Northeast CO and vicinity this afternoon/evening Low-level upslope flow on the cool side of a surface front, combined with weak perturbations rotating around the northwest periphery of the southern Plains midlevel high, will support afternoon thunderstorm development over the foothills. The storms will spread east-southeastward onto the plains, with a tendency for clustering with the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts. OR this afternoon/evening Along the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture plume, a midlevel shortwave trough will move northward from northern CA into OR. Weak forcing for ascent combined with daytime heating over the higher terrain will support scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon/evening from the Cascades into central OR. An environment with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and effective bulk shear near 25 kt will support isolated strong outflow gusts and marginally severe hail.