Severe Storm Risk - Springfield, MA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. Mid MS Valley through the Ozarks into the Southern Plains Recent surface analysis places a low in the NE/IA/MO border intersection vicinity, with a dry line extending southwestward from this low through eastern KS, western OK, and northwest TX. As mentioned in MCD #448, the elevated supercell ongoing across central IA could begin to interact with an environment more supportive of surface-based storms. If a transition to surface-based is realized, an increased potential for damaging gusts and a tornado will exist. New development is also beginning across central IA, along the outflow extending southwestward for this supercell. Hail remains the primary risk across the region, both with the ongoing supercell and any new development along its outflow. Increasing thunderstorm coverage is still expected tonight along the dryline as it shifts eastward, beginning across northwest TX and central OK now before expanding northward into MO, and potentially southwestward into more of southwest TX later. Large hail remains the primary threat with this initially more cellular activity. Some very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) is possible. Over time, storm interactions and/or upscale growth is anticipated, with a trend towards a threat for more damaging gusts. Tornado threat remains low, largely due weakness in the low to mid-level flow and convective mode issues. However, some modest strengthening of the low-level flow should exist this afternoon and evening from eastern OK into the mid MS Valley, supporting a threat for a few tornadoes with both supercells and embedded within clusters. OH Valley Severe Thunderstorm Watch #120 is currently ongoing from far southeast Lower MI across northern OH into far northwest PA. Here, a mix of clusters and supercells pose a threat for scattered damaging winds and large hail as they spread quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and evening. A tornado or two is also possible.