Severe Storm Risk - Stanwood, MI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST AND OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUMMARY Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, as well as across the southern Appalachians on Thursday. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee Valley, central High Plains, and parts of the Northeast. Synopsis The upper level pattern across the US will be characterized by troughing across the western US with a high amplitude ridge across the eastern US. Between these features, several shortwave troughs will rotate through the flow across the central/northern Plains into the Midwest. A surface low will be located across eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, with a surface boundary extending from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Northern High Plains into the Great Lakes and Midwest Early morning convection is likely across some portion of North Dakota in association with a vort max moving out of Montana. The evolution of this activity will likely have implications on the exact placement of the surface boundary by this afternoon across the Dakotas. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and in the vicinity of the surface boundary/residual outflow across the Dakotas by the afternoon. Coverage should increase as a shortwave moves out of Montana into the afternoon/evening with increasing forcing for ascent. Across the northern High Plains, strong daytime heating amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to strong instability. This in combination with deep-layer shear around 40-45 kts will support initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind. Through time, boundary parallel shear and large dew point spreads promoting outflow dominate storms will likely support one or more clusters/bowing segments moving south and east with time, resulting in an increase in the damaging wind threat and potential for a few significant gust 75+ mph. Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley A very moist and unstable air mass is expected to be in place across the Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley this afternoon. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high terrain, with tendency to cluster along outflows. Consensus is highest across the Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley for a more focused corridor of damaging wind potential. Central High Plains Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within the lee trough across the central High Plains this afternoon. Moderate instability overlapping with around 25-30 kts of deep-layer shear will support potential for a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters. Steep low- to mid-level lapse rates and large temperature/dew point spreads will support potential for severe gusts. Initial supercells will pose potential for large hail. Northeast Northeasterly flow within the northern periphery of the eastern ridge will allow for thunderstorm activity to track southward out of Quebec/Ontario across portions of the Northeast this afternoon. The presence of moderate to strong instability and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be supportive of organized storm modes with the predominant hazard being damaging winds. Higher wind probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk may be needed with additional outlook updates if a more favorable corridor of wind potential become clearer.