Severe Storm Risk - Steubenville, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND NORTHWEST/WEST TEXAS SUMMARY Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail and damaging gusts may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with occurrences of hail and damaging winds possible from west into northwest Texas as well. Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and Carolina Piedmont Early morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OH, along a diffuse west to east oriented cold front extending from IA through PA and NJ. Expectation is for this low to gradually shift eastward just ahead of slow-moving shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is anticipated in the vicinity of this low as well as along the cold front, forced predominantly by low-level convergence, across the Upper OH Valley. Lapse rates will be poor, but warm and moist surface conditions will still support modest buoyancy and the potential for strong updrafts. Vertical shear is weak so storm organization will be limited, but a few bowing segments are still possible given the potential for strong cold pools. Highest likelihood for a few stronger gusts will be across eastern PA and NJ where slightly stronger mid-level flow exists. Modest lee troughing is expected from central MD southwestward through the Carolina Piedmont. Diurnal airmass destabilization is anticipated in the vicinity of this troughing, supported by very warm and moist conditions (i.e. temperatures in the upper 90s and dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s). Afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this troughing, with moderate to strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2500 J/kg) supporting strong updrafts and potential water loading. Vertical shear will be weak, so the expectation is for outflow-dominant multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments. The hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates will enhance the damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to more limited storm coverage. Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Steep mid-level lapse rates are forecast to spread eastward/northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains, ahead of a shortwave trough progressing through southern British Columbia and Alberta. The boundary layer will be relatively warm and modestly dry, but, given the steep mid-level lapse rates in place, airmass destabilization is still anticipated. Height falls associated with the shortwave will augment convergence along a cold front to provide the lift needed for thunderstorm development in western ND after the airmass destabilizes. There should be enough vertical shear in place to support organized storm structures capable of large hail and damaging gusts. Thunderstorm development also appears possible farther west across MT closer to the shortwave trough. These storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. Southern High Plains into east TX An outflow boundary from the overnight storms in OK currently arcs from east-central TX (near LFK) northwestward to near MWL and into west TX where it intersects a low east of LUB. Thunderstorm development appears likely along this boundary once the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon. Highest coverage is anticipated from west into northwest TX, with more isolated to widely scattered coverage expected farther east. Vertical shear will be weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm structure. High storm bases and a deeply mixed boundary layer should result in strong cold pools across west/northwest TX, with cold pool amalgamation perhaps resulting a greater potential for damaging gusts than farther east. Lower MS Valley into AL A very moist airmass will support diurnal destabilization and moderate to strong buoyancy this afternoon from the Lower MS Valley eastward into AL. Remnant MCS and associated vorticity maximum currently moving across northern LA are forecast to continue eastward/southeastward, with a second, smaller convective cluster also continuing across northern/central AL. These features will interact with the moist and unstable airmass this afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak and a predominantly outflow-dominant multicellular mode is anticipated. Some stronger gusts are possible via water-loaded downbursts and/or occasional bowing segments.