Severe Storm Risk - Stone Ridge, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUMMARY The risk for severe weather appears generally low across much of the U.S. through tonight. Southeastern Arizona Instability along the higher terrain of east central Arizona into adjacent west central/southwest New Mexico has been sufficient to support weak to modest thunderstorm development. Despite weak, but favorably oriented, northeasterly steering flow, storms have been unable to propagate away from the higher terrain due to minimal destabilization in lower elevations. This is largely due to rather modest boundary layer moisture, including surface dew points lowering to around 50 F with continuing daytime heating and mixing. Northern Mid Atlantic Downstream of a consolidating mid-level impulse across the lower Great Lakes region, destabilization remains sufficient to maintain scattered thunderstorm development across parts of the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region. Aided by high boundary-layer moisture content and momentum associated with 30+ kt southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, it appears that the risk for localized damaging wind gusts could linger into the 03-05Z time frame before diminishing. As the mid-level perturbation and associated surface troughing slowly shift eastward/northeastward, convection allowing output, including HREF/REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance, suggest that intensifying thunderstorm development is possible late tonight in the warm sector across parts of eastern Pennsylvania toward the lower Hudson Valley. Based on forecast soundings, given the high boundary-layer moisture content, it does not appear out of the question that wind profiles could become marginally sufficient for isolated transient supercell structures with a risk for damaging wind gusts and/or perhaps a tornado. Eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota Strengthening forcing for ascent, aided by lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, probably will support increasing potential for thunderstorm development by late tonight. Based on forecast soundings this will be generally elevated/high-based in nature, but potential instability and cloud-bearing shear might be sufficient to support some risk for small to marginally severe hail.