Severe Storm Risk - Strasburg, VA

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NE INTO NORTHWEST KS SUMMARY Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northeast today. Damaging wind, hail and a tornado or two may accompany these storms. Large to very large hail and severe gusts are also possible across parts of western Nebraska and northwest Kansas. Mid-Atlantic/Northeast into parts of the central/southern Appalachians An upper trough will remain in place over much of the eastern CONUS today. Moderate destabilization will be possible along/ahead of a weak surface trough/front extending from central NY/PA into the central/southern Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by mid/late afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer flow/shear for some storm organization (especially from the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast). The strongest cells/clusters will be capable of producing scattered damaging winds and at least isolated hail. Modestly enlarged low-level hodographs may also support some brief-tornado potential. Some severe threat may persist into the evening before storms weaken and/or move offshore. Father south, deep-layer flow/shear will be weaker into parts of the central/southern Appalachians, but scattered storm development within a relatively warm and well-mixed environment will support potential for localized strong/damaging gusts. Central Plains Moderate to locally strong destabilization is expected across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon, beneath modest northwesterly mid/upper-level flow. While large-scale ascent will generally remain rather modest, a subtle midlevel vorticity maximum may aid in isolated to widely scattered storm development from far southwest SD into western/central NE. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for supercells, with steep lapse rates and relatively elongated hodographs supporting potential for large to very large hail, in addition to a threat for localized severe gusts. 00Z CAM guidance shows some uptick in storm coverage within this favorable environment, and a 15% hail area has been added for parts of west-central NE into northwest KS. Some guidance (notably the 00Z HRRR) also shows upscale growth and an attendant swath of severe-wind potential, though this scenario remains more uncertain. Greater wind probabilities may eventually be needed if confidence increases in the MCS scenario. Surrounding the Level-2/Slight Risk, a more isolated threat of severe hail and wind may accompany the strongest cells from parts of the Raton Mesa and CO Front Range vicinity into eastern WY. Western/central Montana Despite rather limited low-level moisture, widely scattered storm development is expected this afternoon across parts of western/central MT, aided by strong heating and the influence of a midlevel shortwave trough and jet maximum that are forecast to crest the amplified upper ridge that is covering much of the interior West. Steep lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts and strong to severe outflow gusts as storms spread east-northeastward across MT. Northeast NV/northwest UT/southeast ID High-based storm development is also expected from parts of northeast NV into northwest UT and southeast ID. While deep-layer flow and storm organization will likely be somewhat weaker compared to areas farther north, steep lapse rates and large DCAPE will support potential for strong to severe outflow gusts from this afternoon into the early evening. South-central TX into the LA Gulf Coast region Uncertainty remains regarding how far south an ongoing storm cluster and its attendant outflow will move across parts of LA/MS early this morning. If this cluster persists to the beginning of the forecast period (as forecast by the 00Z HRRR), then a localized wind-damage threat will be possible near the immediate LA/MS Gulf Coast before storms move offshore. If the cluster weakens and more substantial recovery and diurnal destabilization occurs later today (as forecast by more recent HRRR runs and some other HREF members), then storm redevelopment will be possible by afternoon, potentially aided by a remnant MCV. This scenario could also result in a localized wind-damage threat. Farther west, scattered storm development is forecast across south-central TX this afternoon, near a weak southward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will likely remain quite weak, but moderate buoyancy, large PW, and steep low-level lapse rates will support potential for localized downbursts. Despite the weak shear, the northerly flow regime may result in one or more outflow-driven clusters that will move southward into the early evening before weakening.