Severe Storm Risk - Sturgis, KY

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK SUMMARY Tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds remain possible this evening into parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. A swath of severe gusts (possibly greater than 75 mph) appears possible later tonight from southwest Kansas into central Oklahoma. Mid MS Valley into the Ohio Valley An MCV moving across IN will eventually encounter weaker low-level moisture and instability with eastward extent. However, a long-lived storm cluster may continue eastward toward parts of southwest OH and eastern KY, before a definitive weakening trend occurs. Damaging wind and embedded tornadoes will remain possible with the primary storm cluster until weakening occurs. Semi-discrete cells and small clusters trailing the MCV will also continue to pose a threat of tornadoes (possibly strong) and damaging winds through the evening, within a moist and favorably sheared environment. See MCD 1237 for more information. Central High Plains into OK and southern MO Widely scattered storm development is underway near a surface boundary draped from northwest OK into southeast KS/southwest MO. While large-scale forcing is generally modest at best, MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg and effective shear of 40+ kt are conditionally quite favorable for organized storms. A few supercells may persist along the front through the evening, with a threat of large to very large hail and localized severe gusts. Also, while low-level flow is weak, vorticity and backed surface winds near the boundary could support some tornado potential, if a robust supercell can become established. Farther northwest, a supercell cluster is ongoing across western KS this evening. This cluster will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado through the evening. See MCD 1239 for more information regarding the short-term threat. Short-term guidance (notably the HRRR and RRFS) suggests that this cluster will continue to grow upscale, and potentially evolve into an MCS that will move southeastward across southwest KS into northwest and central OK, with threat of severe gusts (potentially above 75 mph) through the overnight hours. This evolution appears plausible, if evening convection across northwest OK is not too disruptive to the environment. Given the very favorable midlevel lapse rates on the 00Z DDC and OUN soundings, rich moisture, and strong instability and deep-layer shear, a 30%/CIG1 wind area was added from southwest KS into central OK.