Severe Storm Risk - Summer Hill, NY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN...THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES SUMMARY Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible into tonight across parts of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes into western New York, the central Plains, and lower Colorado River Valley into the Great Basin. Severe hail and strong/damaging winds should be the main threats. Great Lakes to western NY Evening water-vapor imagery showed an occluded upper low over MB/AB moving eastward with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains. A corridor of enhanced mid-level westerly flow was overspreading the Midwest and western Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak cold front was moving from southern Canada into western WI and trailing westward across the central Plains. A rather moist and strongly unstable air mass remains in place this evening across portions of WI/MI ahead of the surface front. So far, weak forcing for ascent and residual inhibition has prevent much in the way of robust convection. Isolated development will remain possible, as hinted by short term guidance, through later this evening given the strong instability and glancing influence of the upper low/trough. While uncertain, if storms are able to develop, 45-50 kt of bulk shear would support supercells with damaging wind and some hail potential across eastern WI into lower MI. Thunderstorms may also spread from Lower MI and southern ON into western NY tonight into early Tuesday morning aided by low-level warm air advection. Increasing instability may support an isolated threat for damaging winds overnight. Central Plains High-based thunderstorms ongoing across the High Plains of CO will continue to track northeastward along the surface front this evening. Hot surface temperatures have helped steepen low/mid-level lapse rates and will support isolated strong to severe downdraft winds with this activity. Occasional hail may also occur with the strongest cores thanks to some organization from a belt of stronger mid-level flow. This organization and coalescing outflow could support some clustering later tonight. See MCD#2138 for additional information. Great Basin Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this evening over portions of southern UT/NV. Aided by strong heating of a monsoon air mass and weak ascent from a passing shortwave trough, these storms should continue into the overnight hours. Modestly enhanced mid-level flow and steep low-level lapse rates will support severe wind potential and some risk for hail with the stronger clusters or transient supercells. Much weaker buoyancy to the north may limit severity of the convection as they encounter the more stable air mass this evening. Coastal/Southeast Texas into Southern Louisiana Reference NHC forecasts/advisories for the latest information on TD 5. Low-level easterly flow on the northern side of the TC should remain modest ahead of a forecast landfall tomorrow. This, combined with the compact nature of the system favors weak low-level shear and limited potential for onshore bands with tornado or thunderstorm driven damaging wind potential.