Severe Storm Risk - Sutton, ND

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUMMARY Isolated large hail and severe thunderstorm winds may occur across the southern High Plains and Dakotas/Upper Midwest this afternoon and evening. 20z Update No appreciable forecast changes were required. Based on latest analyses, the highest severe wind threat remains across the eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota where low-level lapse rates have increased to near dry adiabatic ahead of approaching convection attendant to a low-level vorticity maximum. A few recent severe wind gusts have accompanied some of this convection as it moves into the plume of steep low-level lapse rates. However, based on latest guidance thunderstorm coverage should remain widely scattered through early evening, suggesting that 5% wind probabilities remain the most appropriate characterization of the risk. Across the southern High Plains, convective initiation is underway within the southern Rockies. Per MRMS vertical ice trends, some large hail may accompany some of this initial activity before it spreads east through the evening. Based on latest model trends, a convective cluster will likely materialize out of the scattered thunderstorms north of the Albuquerque area and will pose a severe wind threat downstream across east-central NM later this evening. As with the northern Plains, this threat should be sufficiently isolated to maintain only 5% wind probabilities. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #1149 and #1150 for additional forecast details.