Severe Storm Risk - Tesuque, NM

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms with hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible across portions of New Mexico and southern Colorado today into tonight. An elongated western US trough will drift eastward today as the primary vort max is forecast to lift northeastward across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies through tonight. A secondary shortwave perturbation will round the base of the trough and approach coastal southern CA. Despite the fragmented nature of the upper trough, mid-level meridional flow will remain fairly strong from portions of northern Mexico to the Canadian border. Ascent associated with both perturbations and the strong flow crossing the higher terrain will aid in developing a lee cyclone across eastern MT. A trailing lee trough will connect to a second, much weaker, cyclone over southern NM and northern Senora. This will support modest northward return of unseasonably robust moisture, and subsequent destabilization across NM and the southern High Plains favorable for strong to severe storms. New Mexico and southern Colorado Remnant showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early this morning across the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO. The impact this convection and cloud debris will have on later convective development is somewhat uncertain. Regardless, mid-level ascent, persistent upslope flow and continued advection of 50-60 F surface dewpoints should result in adequate destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) by early afternoon across southern CO and northern NM. Subsequent development and intensification of multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with organization into supercells and clusters expected, owing to elongated and fairly straight hodographs. Hail will be the primary risk, with isolated strong gusts possible as well. However, some veering in the low-levels, aided by terrain-induced backing of the flow and moist low-levels could support a low-probability tornado risk with the strongest supercells. Farther south more robust diurnal heating is expected to develop where clearing should be more prominent. Afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg is likely to exist amidst the strong wind fields. While low-level flow is expected to remain more veered with the weaker surface pressure response, straight hodographs and effective shear greater than 40 kt will still favor splitting supercells. Large hail (some 2+ inch) is possible. The deeper mixing, especially with eastward extent in southern NM and far west TX, may also support some damaging/severe gust potential if storms remain higher based. High Plains A more isolated severe risk could develop within the foothills and adjacent high Plains of southeastern CO where modest buoyancy, increasingly strong flow aloft, and steeper low-level lapse rates will exist. Convection emanating from the higher terrain could persist into the drier and more deeply mixed air mass beginning mid to late afternoon, enhancing downdrafts and damaging gust potential. The degree of organization/intensity of these storms is uncertain, but 5% wind probabilities have been added.