Severe Storm Risk - The Village of Indian Hill, OH

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind gusts may also occur in parts of the Ozarks, mid Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Arizona. Central and Northern Plains A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the central and northern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from the Dakotas southward into Nebraska, where surface dewpoints will mostly be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop across much of the region. Along and near the instability axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. As instability peaks late this afternoon, low-level convergence will likely become maximized along a surface trough from the western Dakotas southward into eastern Colorado. This will aid convective initiation, with several clusters developing and moving eastward across the central and northern High Plains. In the vicinity of the instability axis, moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rate will support a threat for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible across parts of central and northern North Dakota where instability and deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells. Further south into parts of western and central Kansas, an east-to-west axis of low-level moisture will be in place. Some model forecasts suggest that an organized line of storms will develop and move eastward along this axis during the early to mid evening. Severe wind gusts will be possible with this line of storms. Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valley A very moist airmass will be in place today from the Ozarks eastward into the lower Ohio Valley, where surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 70s F. In response to surface heating, moderate to strong instability is expected to develop by afternoon across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley. Some model solutions have an axis of low-level convergence located from central Missouri eastward to southern Indiana, suggesting that convective coverage could be maximized along this corridor. The instability, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates will be favorable for severe wind gusts with any line segment that can become organized. Mid-Atlantic A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the southern Appalachians today and approach the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F. This will contribute to a pocket of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in the higher terrain of the central Appalachians will move eastward into the Mid-Atlantic during the late afternoon and early evening. Forecast deep-layer shear appears sufficient to support a severe threat. The instability and steep low-level lapse rates will contribute to a potential for severe wind gusts with the stronger multicells. Southeast Arizona An axis of instability is forecast to develop today across southeast Arizona. Near this axis, low-level convergence will become maximized during the afternoon, which will result in isolated to scattered convective initiation. Storms that form near the instability axis as low-level lapse rates peak in the late afternoon could produce isolated severe wind gusts.