Severe Storm Risk - Topeka, KS

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are expected across parts of the southern and central Plains from this afternoon into tonight. Synopsis Early-morning satellite imagery shows a deep shortwave trough progressing through the Four Corners vicinity, with a lead shortwave trough moving through the central Plains. Evolution of the lead shortwave has contributed to the development of a pair of surface lows, one near the MT/SD/ND border intersection and the other over the western NE/SD border vicinity. Recent surface analysis reveals a cold front extending between these two lows and south-southwestward from the southernmost low through eastern CO. A large warm sector precedes this cold front, with 60s dewpoints reaching into central NE and mid 60s reaching through the eastern TX and OK Panhandles into western KS. The Four Corners shortwave trough is forecast to continue eastward today, reaching the central/southern High Plains by this afternoon and through much of the central and southern Plains by early Tuesday morning. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will precede this system, spreading eastward/northeastward from the southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley throughout the period. Thunderstorms are expected over much the Plains today as this system interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place. A weak upper low will also drift westward from the FL Peninsula into the eastern Gulf. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the FL Peninsula today as this low interacts with the very moist airmass in place. Southern and Central Plains into Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently ongoing from the eastern TX Panhandle through central KS this morning. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue northeastward as the lead shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis continues northeastward. Some mid-level drying is anticipated in the wake of these storms from western/central KS southward along the TX/OK border into northwest TX. This drying should allow for filtered heating across this region, allowing temperatures to climb into mid 70s (across western KS) to low 80s (across northwest TX). These temperatures should be high enough to erode much, if not all, of the convective inhibition, setting the stage for afternoon thunderstorm development as height falls associated with the Four Corners shortwave trough impinge on the region. Strong southwesterly mid-level flow will support long hodographs, although the more moderate low-level flow does result in some weakening/backing between 850 and 700 mb. As a result, initial development may take some time to get organized, with at least some potential for it to trend towards bowing line segments. However, the general expectation is for at least a few isolated, warm-sector supercells from south-central KS through western OK by 22-23Z. Low-level flow is forecast to increase once again around 00Z, so any supercells that persist should begin to encounter increasingly favorable kinematics during that time frame. This evolution suggests a corridor of relatively greater tornado potential from north-central OK into south-central KS where it is most likely for supercells to interact with the strengthening low-level shear. Additional storm development is anticipated along the dryline itself. By 00Z Tuesday, this dryline will likely extend southward from western KS along the TX/OK border and int southwest TX. Gradual eastward progression of this dryline is anticipated before the cold front catches up to it in the central KS/central OK vicinity early Tuesday morning. Severe wind gusts and a QLCS tornado threat will be possible with this line throughout the evening and overnight hours, with the threat potentially continuing into the early morning across portions of western MO and the OK/AR border vicinity. North TX into the TX Hill Country Late afternoon/early evening thunderstorm development is anticipated along the dryline as it interacts with the moist and unstable airmass in place across the region. The stronger mid-level flow and forcing for ascent will be displaced north of the region, but vertical shear will be strong enough to support organized updrafts. Large hail is possible early in the convective cycle, but damaging gusts appear to be the main threat as the convection grows upscale into an eastward-propagating line. A few line-embedded tornadoes are possible as well, particularly across north-central TX where low-level shear is maximized on the southern edge of the low-level jet. FL Peninsula Widespread showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms are anticipated across the FL Peninsula today. Buoyancy will remain fairly modest, and vertical shear is weak, limiting the overall severe potential. However, ample low-level moisture and relatively strong low-level westerly flow could support a brief tornado, particularly via constructive interaction between cells. However, the overall potential appears too low to introduce any tornado probabilities with this outlook.