Severe Storm Risk - Tucson Estates, AZ

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARIZONA SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, a few tornadoes, and damaging winds are expected today and tonight across parts of Arizona and vicinity. Isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may also occur along the central/southern California Coast. Southwest Recent satellite imagery continues to show deep southwesterly flow aloft from the central Baja Peninsula through AZ and the Four Corners region. Warm-air advection associated with this southwesterly flow aloft has contributed to showers and thunderstorms across central/northern AZ this morning. The low-level airmass here is still relatively cool and stable, but strong vertical shear has still resulted in several supercells. As mentioned in MCD #2385, additional/isolated thunderstorms are possible within this low-midlevel moisture plume, potentially aided by embedded speed maxima moving north-northeastward. Strong vertical shear will persist as well, suggesting several of these storms could become supercellular. Large hail will remain the primary risk until the low levels destabilize. Deep cyclone off the central/southern CA coast is forecast to gradually shift east-southeastward today. As it does, southwesterly flow aloft within its eastern periphery will strengthen, with deep-layer vertical shear across AZ also strengthening in response. Low-level moisture will advect northward as well. Even with widespread cloudiness, this increased moisture combined with filtered daytime heating will support gradual airmass destabilization and the development of up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE across this region. Strongest buoyancy is anticipated in south-central AZ. Forcing for ascent will increase in tandem with airmass destabilization and the general expectation is for increasing thunderstorm coverage along and just south/west of the Mogollon Rim this afternoon. Supercell wind profiles are in place, and large to isolated very large hail (i.e. 2"+ in diameter) is expected to be the primary hazard. However, storm motion will take these storms north-northeastward, potentially interacting with the more southeasterly low-level flow along/near the Rim. Resulting increase in low-level shear will support an increased tornado potential. This potential will be maximized from northwest into central AZ this afternoon and early evening, but low-probability tornado potential will extend to the southern AZ/NM border. Strong wind gusts are possible as well, particularly from central into southeast AZ where relatively stronger heating/mixing is possible. Tornado threat is expected to diminish gradually with the loss of daytime heating, but thunderstorms will likely persist throughout the evening and overnight. Large hail will remain possible with this overnight activity. Coastal Central/Southern California The large cyclone over the eastern Pacific will approach the central CA Coast through the period, with a belt of strong southerly flow at mid levels expected to overspread coastal central/southern CA through the day. A low-topped line of convection may develop in response and impact this region during the afternoon/evening. Limited instability is forecast, and updrafts may struggle to reach sufficient depth for charge separation and lightning production. Even so, given modestly enhanced flow and low-level shear, an isolated risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado may exist as this convection moves onshore.