Severe Storm Risk - Waveland, MS

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHEAST...CENTRAL PLAINS...UPPER MIDWEST...AND SIERRA INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN SUMMARY Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and hail today across parts of the the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Other strong thunderstorms may produce occasional damaging winds from north Texas/southern Oklahoma into portions of the Southeast, and separately across parts of the Sierra into the northern Great Basin. Texas into the Southeast/Carolinas An expansive area of convection has developed this morning across north-central TX/southern OK, aided by modest low-level warm advection and a weak mid-level disturbance. Both low-level and deep-layer shear remain weak across this region (generally less than 20-25 kt), which should tend to limit updraft organization and overall thunderstorm severity through the rest of the morning. But, a very moist airmass and substantial reservoir of instability are present ahead of this ongoing convection and south of a surface cold front extending across TX into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Current expectations are for an isolated severe/damaging wind threat to persist downstream into the afternoon across these areas as the moist airmass undergoes additional destabilization with daytime heating. Considered including higher wind probabilities, but confidence in a more organized/severe MCS remains low owing to the weak deep-layer shear. Additional thunderstorms have also formed south into central/south-central TX this morning. This activity may also pose some risk for severe winds with the stronger cores as it develops east-southeastward through the day, even though shear and overall updraft organization will remain modest. The Marginal Risk extending into the Southeast/eastern Carolinas has been generally adjusted southward to account for the position of the cold front, and expectations that the isolated damaging wind risk will likely remain confined along/south of this boundary. Stronger low/mid-level flow associated with the remnants of Arthur over the eastern Carolinas this morning is forecast to quickly shift offshore through the day. An isolated severe wind and brief tornado threat may exist along/ahead of ongoing precipitation across this region, although instability will remain limited. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will likely develop this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula, with a preferential focus along the Atlantic Coast sea breeze given modest westerly flow aloft. While low/mid-level winds and related shear are expected to remain weak, the strongest cores could still become capable of producing occasional damaging winds as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Upper Midwest An upper low will remain over northern Manitoba/Ontario today, with a broad fetch of moderate northwest flow aloft across the northern Rockies/Plains. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Dakotas and toward the upper MS Valley by this evening, with weak surface low pressure into northern MN. Strong surface heating along with generally 50s surface dewpoints and convergence near a cold front will lead to scattered storms across much of MN and western WI. Forecast soundings show cold profiles aloft over northern areas, though effective bulk shear will be somewhat weaker with northward extent. Deep-layer shear will be stronger over southern MN, but instability will not be as favorable farther south. Even so, cells that develop this afternoon and evening and track southeastward may be capable of producing severe hail given the cool mid-level temperatures. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur. Central Plains Beneath modest northwest flow aloft, surface low pressure will develop over southeast CO today, with southeasterly low-level winds across the central Plains. This will aid modest low-level warm/moist advection, with 50s to perhaps low 60s surface dewpoints across KS, eastern CO, and southern NE. It remains uncertain if any thunderstorms will develop later today across this region, but the influence of the upper trough over the northern Plains may yield a few elevated cells. Additional warm/moist advection this evening/overnight may also support isolated convective development. Hail appears to be the primary risk, with moderate instability/deep-layer shear and somewhat steepened mid-level lapse rates potentially supporting supercells. However, confidence in sustained convection remains too low to include greater severe probabilities. Sierra/Northern Great Basin As a weak mid-level shortwave trough advances inland from the eastern Pacific, isolated to scattered high-based thunderstorms should develop later today across parts of the northern Sierra Mountains into adjacent portions of the Great Basin. While low-level moisture will remain limited, a very deeply mixed boundary layer and some mid-level moisture/cooling aloft ahead of the shortwave trough should support weak instability and thunderstorm potential. This activity could become strong given some deep-layer shear, with isolated severe gusts/outflow possible.