Severe Storm Risk - West Baton Rouge, LA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/WEST TEXAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are possible today mainly across the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of West Texas. Other more isolated severe storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the central High Plains. Lower Mississippi Valley An ongoing semi-well-organized cluster of storms appears to be aided by an MCV, and will likely continue east-northeastward today across the ArkLaMiss and broader parts of Mississippi, to the north of more extensive weaker convection closer to the coast in southern Louisiana. Ample heating ahead of the cluster and steepening low-level lapse rates will support wind potential aside from a modest MCV-related flow enhancement. A brief tornado could also occur, although thunderstorm wind damage is most probable. West Texas/Southern High Plains Relatively weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon, stronger with southward extent across the Texas South Plains into southwest Texas. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the Colorado/Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary severe hazards. A gradual clustering is expected during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening. Georgia/South Carolina A weak mid-level disturbance will move east-northeastward today. Ahead of it, adequate heating of a moist boundary layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will support some multicellular organization in the form of a few thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon before this threat wanes by early evening. Central High Plains Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough. The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threats with these storms. Ohio A couple of rotating storms could develop regionally this afternoon within a belt of residually strong low-level flow. A brief/low-end tornado threat may exist.