Severe Storm Risk - West Leroy, PA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUMMARY Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the southern Plains northeastward into mid Mississippi Valley and Lower Great Lakes. A greater threat for large hail will exist across parts of west-central Texas. Southern Plains Southwest flow aloft is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern Plains. At the surface, an east-to-west oriented cold front is located across west and central Texas. Several strong thunderstorms are ongoing along the front. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints near 70 F are contributing to strong instability over the southern third of Texas, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4500 J/kg range. In addition, the RAP has steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear analyzed across much of central and south Texas. This will be favorable for organized storms this evening capable of hail and severe wind gusts. Large hail will be most likely with any supercell that can develop. The severe threat is expected to move southward into south-central Texas by late evening. MCS development appears to be underway. As the convective coverage continues to increase, a transition to severe wind gusts as the primary threat is expected...see MCD 795. Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys/Lower Great Lakes At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the Ohio Valley. A cold front is located from southern Indiana northeastward across central Ohio into the lower Great Lakes. A line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing near the front. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are in the 60s F which is enough for sufficient instability to support severe storm development. The RAP suggests that 0-3 km level lapse rates are still in the 7 to 7.5 C/km ahead of the front from Ohio into northwest Pennsylvania. This could support isolated damaging wind gusts with the stronger cells embedded in the line...see MCD 797.