Severe Storm Risk - West Raleigh, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of Texas to the Gulf Coast states today. Scattered large to very large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks, with giant hail possible in parts of south-central Texas. 20Z Update The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced Risk for portions of the Edwards Plateau into south-central TX -- driven by a CIG2 (intensity level 2/2) hail area. The latest visible satellite imagery indicates an agitated boundary-layer cumulus field evolving east of Fort Stockton in Crockett County, where attempts at isolated convective initiation are underway. Current thinking is that continued diurnal heating of a moist air mass (lower 70s dewpoints) and upslope flow enhancements will result in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Current thinking is that storms will track/develop southeastward into a corridor of strong to extreme buoyancy -- driven by steep midlevel lapse rates (around 8.5 C/km per 12Z DRT sounding) atop the destabilizing PBL. This, combined with a long/straight hodograph (60-70 kt of effective shear) and modest forcing for ascent will favor intense discrete/splitting supercells. Given the modest forcing for ascent, it is unclear how many storms will form in this corridor, though any sustained supercells will pose a risk of very large to giant hail (3-4+ inches in diameter).