Severe Storm Risk - West Springfield, MA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUMMARY Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Mid-Atlantic States/southern New England A large-scale positive-tilt upper-level trough will approach the region, with a modest buoyancy/high-vertical shear scenario expected to be favorable for low-topped/fast-moving storms capable of wind damage near/ahead of a cold front. Such severe potential is expected to maximize across the Delmarva and eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York. Stratus remains very prevalent across much of the region late this morning, although visible satellite imagery reflects a rather quick erosion south to north across southern Virginia, and this same trend should continue for east of the Blue Ridge/Appalachians spine especially across Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania and perhaps nearby parts of New Jersey/Delmarva. A related surface low over southern Ontario will develop east-northeastward today into southern Quebec, as a trailing cold front sweeps east-southeastward across the eastern states. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase ahead of the front through the afternoon, and MLCAPE should gradually increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range, particularly where more cloud breaks occur. But, lapse rates through low/mid levels are likely to remain quite poor (reference BUF/PIT/IAD 12Z observed soundings). This should temper overall updraft strength to some extent, and low-topped convection which develops along/near the front may produce little lightning, especially with northward extent into southern New England. Even with the potential thermodynamic limitations, favorable deep-layer shear will support some updraft organization. Given the strength of the low/mid-level flow, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur. A low-topped convective line will further develop across central into eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York this afternoon. Convectively augmented wind gusts capable of producing scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe risk as this activity spreads quickly eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through early evening. A few line-embedded mesocirculations could also occur, which could yield a brief tornado.