Severe Storm Risk - West Townsend, MA

• Severe Storm Risk

  Sun 09:00 AM - Mon 08:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUMMARY Strong to severe storms appear most likely later today into this evening across parts of the Northeast, Midwest and Ohio Valley, and northern Plains. Synopsis A mid-level trough will amplify across the Northeast today with increasing mid-level flow ahead of an approaching jet streak. A low-amplitude ridge will build somewhat across the Upper Midwest. Farther west, mid-level flow will strengthen across the northern Rockies into the northern Plains as a trough amplifies on the Pacific Northwest coast. As of 12Z, an elongated frontal zone exists from the Northeast to the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes and into the northern Plains. Ongoing thunderstorms are present across the eastern Great Lakes, the Midwest, and the northern Plains. This is correlated with the stronger ascent and the areas with the greatest severe weather potential today. Northeast Weak to moderate instability is forecast to develop across the Northeast today as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the upper 60s, and as mid-level temperatures gradually cool through the day. As the cold front advances east into this uncapped airmass, scattered thunderstorms should develop. Shear of 30 to 35 knots and relatively long/straight hodographs will support the potential for supercells. Weak mid-level lapse rates will be the primary limiting factor for large hail, but the overall favorable shear with strong venting aloft and potential supercells may support some isolated large hail. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, both from initial cells and also from any clusters which develop. Any stronger clusters with bowing segments could support a better organized damaging wind swath. The greatest wind damage threat will likely exist from western Massachusetts to far southern Maine. Ohio Valley A large mass of thunderstorms continues east across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois this morning. Heating is anticipated south and east of this activity which should result in an increasing severe weather threat by late morning to early afternoon. It remains unclear whether the afternoon severe threat may materialize out of ongoing thunderstorm activity, or from additional storm development along the front or the outflow boundary associated with these storms. Nonetheless, 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 35 to 40 knots will support an organized severe weather threat including the potential for supercells. Despite the supercell mode, the hail threat should remain minimal given the weak mid-level lapse rates and warm mid-level temperatures with high freezing levels. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from these storms with the greatest threat from central Indiana to southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky. Northern Plains Weak lee troughing is forecast in the western Nebraska vicinity today as moderate mid-level flow overspreads the northern Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this surface low into the central High Plains. Isolated storms are possible along this boundary this afternoon/evening. Moderate destabilization is forecast across central South Dakota and vicinity as low-level moisture is advected westward to the north of the surface low. Diurnal thunderstorm activity is forecast to be relatively isolated along the dryline with perhaps slightly greater coverage across eastern Minnesota amid cooler temperatures aloft. However, the ongoing cluster of storms across North Dakota is forecast to linger as isentropic ascent is maintained through the day. Eventual upscale growth and a southeastward movement along the instability gradient is anticipated. RAP forecast soundings show an environment favorable for large hail initially with any supercells which develop. However, the severe wind threat may increase by this evening as storms congeal into a MCS with potential linear, bowing segments.