Severe Storm Risk - Wheeler, IN

• Severe Storm Risk

  Fri 08:00 AM - Sat 07:00 AM

  There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS SUMMARY A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells associated with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. Several strong tornadoes are expected, and a long-track high-end tornado will be possible. From the evening into the overnight, a bowing line segment is expected to form with potential for tornadoes and damaging winds, some possibly greater than 75 mph. Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley Region As an upper-level low near the MN/ND border shifts east today, a mid-level jet streak will move from the Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. A surface cold front will move east across the Great Lakes, Midwest and OH/TN Valley region this afternoon and tonight. An expansive warm/moist sector will destabilize during the day, setting the stage for a regional severe weather outbreak this afternoon and tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms, with a history of large hail, were ongoing at 13z from northeast AR into eastern KY. Clusters of severe storms, including supercells, will continue moving northeast within this corridor through at least early afternoon. The eventual longevity of these storms remains uncertain, however downstream diurnal destabilization could allow storms with a severe hail/wind threat to move into WV/western VA this afternoon. In the wake of these morning storms, destabilization will occur as a warm front lifts north, with strong instability (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) developing from portions of eastern MO east into the OH/TN Valley region, and south in advance of the front into eastern TX. The presence of strong mid-level flow will contribute to deep-layer shear averaging 50 kts or higher across a large area. Vigorous redevelopment of severe storms is expected by early afternoon across southern/eastern MO as height falls overspread the area. More isolated development is expected southward along the cold front towards 00Z. Initial storm development will strongly favor supercell storm mode with all severe hazards possible, including the potential for strong tornadoes across the Moderate/Enhanced Risk areas where low-level shear will be strongest. Large to very large hail will also be possible with mature supercells this afternoon through early evening. As storms continue moving east across the OH/TN Valley region, eventual upscale growth into multiple bowing segments is expected. The tornado threat will continue, especially with QLCS circulations, and significant severe gusts will also be possible. Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley Warm mid-level temperatures will tend to delay thunderstorm initiation along the southward-trailing cold front into northeast TX until later in the day, however at least isolated development is expected towards 22z-00z. MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 45-55 kts of deep-layer shear oriented favorably relative to the front suggests a supercell mode with large to very large hail, along with damaging gusts. Although weaker low-level shear will be present in this area, some potential for a tornado will exist with any mature supercell. With time, storms may increase in coverage and begin to cluster in an environment favorable for a continued severe wind/hail threat. Portions of the Mid-Atlantic/northern DelMarVa Peninsula As the southern portion of the long-lived MCS over PA/NY continues moving east/southeast today, the potential will exist for re-development of organized storms, including supercells, over portions of southeast PA/southern NJ and the northern DelMarVa peninsula. With moderate west/northwest flow in place to the east of the upper level ridge, RAP/HRRR forecast soundings depict sufficient deep shear and moderate instability for a severe hail and wind risk. Some consideration was given for higher severe probabilities in this area, however uncertainty remains on the location of a corridor of greater risk.