Severe Storm Risk - Williams, MN

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MT AND WESTERN ND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA SUMMARY A mix of initial supercells and later storm clusters will produce swaths of severe outflow winds and very large hail across the northern High Plains late this afternoon into early tonight. Isolated wind damage will also be possible from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas, as well as across west Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Northern High Plains this afternoon into tonight Embedded speed maxima will rotate northeastward over the northern High Plains, around the eastern periphery of a close midlevel low evolving over the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will continue to spread northward from KS/NE to the Dakotas, east of a deep lee trough/cyclone across the central/northern High Plains. The moistening will occur beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, which combined with daytime heating will result in large CAPE. Thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along both the surface trough/lee cyclone near the MT/ND border and near the Big Horn Mountains. The initial storms could be supercells with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter) near the ND/MT border, and a couple of tornadoes with any supercells anchored along the surface boundary, though relatively large temperature-dewpoint spreads and mode concerns could temper the tornado threat somewhat. By late evening and early tonight, storms will likely grow upscale and move northeastward across ND as one or more MCSs with severe outflow winds (potentially 80+ mph) in the steep lapse rate environment. More isolated supercells will also be possible farther south into western SD/NE where isolated very large hail and significant severe outflow gusts will be possible. TN/southern KY to NC this afternoon An MCV now over eastern KY will continue eastward near the VA/NC border during the day, and additional MCVs are likely to emerge from ongoing storm clusters moving eastward across OK, southwest KS and the TX Panhandle. Ascent with the MCVs, as well as residual outflow/differential heating zones, will help focus thunderstorm development during the afternoon in a moist, unstable environment. Occasional wind damage will be possible with storm clusters where low-level lapse rates are relatively steep (south of persistent clouds) and there is some enhancement of midlevel flow. An isolated tornado may also occur in the warm advection zone with enhanced low-level hodograph curvature across TN on the southwest flank of the western MCV, though confidence in this scenario is low. TX Panhandle into west TX late this afternoon/evening Though forcing for ascent will be weak at best this far south, strong surface heating/mixing along the lee trough/dryline could support high-based thunderstorm development late this afternoon. Inverted-V profiles will favor the potential for isolated severe outflow gusts of 60-75 mph.