There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST
SUMMARY
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.
Central Plains into Midwest
Moderately fast zonal flow remains across the northern US today, with the primary surface boundary extending from the TX Panhandle east-northeastward into parts of KS/MO/IL. This boundary will be enhanced by daytime differential heating, and will provide the focus for scattered thunderstorms along its length. Most of this activity will be relatively disorganized, but in an environment of moderate CAPE and steep low-level lapse rates favorable for occasional strong/severe downdrafts.
One area of greater concern extends across northern MO into west-central IL. Morning CAM solutions suggest higher confidence in storm coverage in this area, and forecast soundings show sufficient deep-layer shear for organized multicell or occasional supercell structures. However, much of this activity may occur on the north side of the baroclinic zone with slightly weaker support for intense downburst winds. Warm temperatures aloft should limit hail concern. Therefore, have opted to maintain the MRGL risk category and re-evaluate at the 20z update.