Weather Alerts

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. OK and TX Southwesterly upper-level flow over the southern Great Plains will be downstream of an eastward-migrating upper trough moving into the central and southern High Plains by early evening. A frontal zone modulated by convection overnight over the eastern part of the TX Panhandle and OK will sag southward through tonight. A moist airmass will undergo appreciable heating amidst surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F, resulting in moderate buoyancy by mid afternoon. Sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization is expected across OK, where a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail is expected to evolve during the afternoon into the early evening. The 20/00z HREF/REFS ensemble guidance showed agreement in delineating the strongest explicit 10-m wind gusts across parts of southern OK within a corridor characterized by very steep 0-3 km lapse rates. Have introduced an intensity level-1 area where confidence in 60-80 mph gusts is greatest. Central High Plains A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the central High Plains today. An easterly component to low-level flow north of the surface front will maintain a fetch of moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints), and this moisture combined with heating will enable moderate destabilization by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm and convective inhibition erodes, scattered storms are forecast by mid-late afternoon. Model forecast soundings show straight hodographs with sizable CAPE in the -10 to -30 deg C layer. As a result, a few supercells are probable with the primary severe hazard being large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) along with isolated severe gusts. Some lingering severe risk may eventually develop over southeast CO late this evening and spread into the OK Panhandle overnight. Ozarks/Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys A series of low-amplitude perturbations will move generally east across the Ozarks and OH Valley to the north of a weakened mid-level anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf Coast. A reservoir of seasonally rich low-level moisture (mid 60s to low 70s deg F surface dewpoints) will exist south a cold front that was analyzed near the I-70 corridor this morning. This frontal zone is forecast to gradually push southward during the period and serve as the northern delimiter of strong/severe thunderstorm activity. As the boundary layer heats through the mid afternoon to the south of more extensive cloud cover with north extent, moderate buoyancy will likely develop. Some modest enhancement to mid-level flow will probably accompany the aforementioned convectively augmented mid-level features. Portions of eastern IL into IN could perhaps yield a slightly more favorable environment for severe storms due to hodograph structure. Yet, it remains uncertain whether some strengthening of low-level flow in vicinity of the effective frontal zone occurs later today. The 19/06z NAM differed substantially versus recent RAP model runs. Regardless, a few clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will probably evolve, posing mainly an isolated threat for wind damage.