There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center.
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National Severe Storm Outlook
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUMMARY
Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Plains. A marginal wind-damage threat will also be possible in parts of the Ozarks, and from the southern Ohio Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley.
Southern Plains
A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is currently moving through west Texas within southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a cold front is located from northwest Texas extending east-northeastward into southern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in northwest Texas, and this activity will likely continue to move east-northeastward along the boundary this evening. Although moderate instability is analyzed over parts of north Texas, instability is weaker near the boundary, along the potential track of the severe line segment approaching Wichita Falls, Texas. In spite of this, RAP forecast soundings early this evening have 40 to 50 knots of southwesterly flow in the mid-levels, which will support organized thunderstorm development. Although supercells will be possible early this evening, it appears that the predominant mode will be linear. The more intense line segments could produce damaging wind gusts. The threat may persist into the late evening as the line moves through southern and eastern Oklahoma. A marginal threat may continue into the overnight period across part of the Ozarks.
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys
On water vapor imagery, it appears that multiple weak shortwave perturbations are moving through a ridge in the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At the surface, a cold front is located from western Tennessee extending northeastward into the central Appalachians. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front with the greatest convective coverage in southern Kentucky. These storms are located near an axis of instability. Along this axis, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg range, and surface dewpoints are mostly in the 70s F. Although deep-layer shear is somewhat limited, the moist and unstable environment may be enough for isolated damaging wind gusts over the next hour or so.
