
El Niño Winter 2026–2027 What It Could Mean for the US
A rapidly strengthening El Niño could shift storm tracks, snow and temperatures across the country. Here is what each region may notice.
# HEADLINE -------------------- FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY # DETAILS -------------------- WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be possible. WHERE Portions of Indiana, including the following counties, Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ripley, Union and Wayne and Ohio, including the following counties, Adams, Auglaize, Brown, Butler, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Darke, Delaware, Fairfield, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ross, Scioto, Shelby, Union and Warren. WHEN Until noon EDT today. IMPACTS Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. ADDITIONAL DETAILS - Additional showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this morning. Locally heavy rain is possible and with the ground saturated from earlier rainfall, this additional rain could lead to flash flooding. ISSUED AT Monday, September 21, 2026 at 1:43 AM EDT ISSUED BY National Weather Service Wilmington OH HEADER URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED | Flood Watch # PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS -------------------- People in the watch area should keep an eye on the weather and be prepared for immediate action should heavy rains and flooding occur or a Flash Flood Warning be issued. Avoid low-lying areas and be careful when approaching highway dips and underpasses. # AREAS AFFECTED -------------------- Adams, Butler, Darke, Franklin, Auglaize, Brown, Champaign, Clark, Clermont, Clinton, Dearborn, Delaware, Fairfield, Fayette, Fayette, Franklin, Greene, Hamilton, Hardin, Highland, Hocking, Licking, Logan, Madison, Mercer, Miami, Montgomery, Pickaway, Pike, Preble, Ripley, Ross, Scioto, Shelby, Union, Union, Warren, Wayne Including the cities of Piqua, Fairfield, Lancaster, Mount Orab, Waverly, Circleville, Mason, Batesville, Washington Court House, Aurora, Lebanon, Greenfield, Wheelersburg, Newark, Summerside, Plain City, Mount Carmel, Eaton, Seaman, Camden, West College Corner, Connersville, Dillsboro, Ripley, Bright, Portsmouth, Landen, Sidney, Georgetown, Milford, Troy, Delaware, Kettering, Withamsville, London, Greendale, Hamilton, Logan, Hillsboro, Downtown Columbus, Pike Lake, West Union, Marysville, Peebles, Day Heights, Ada, New Bremen, Urbana, Hidden Valley, Coldwater, St. Marys, Wilmington, Manchester, Lawrenceburg, Minster, Brookville, Franklin, Wapakoneta, Mount Repose, Mulberry, Milan, Downtown Dayton, Middletown, West Jefferson, Celina, Bellefontaine, Osgood, Xenia, Tipp City, Chillicothe, Liberty, Winchester, Greenville, Richmond, Blanchester, Kenton, Springfield, Oxford, Aberdeen, Downtown Cincinnati, Beavercreek, Pickerington, Springboro, Piketon, Fairborn, and Versailles
Closest strike: 19.87 miles Storms Approaching Stay alert and frequently check WeatherBug to see if storms are moving toward you. Be mindful that new storms can also form with little notice.
There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the central High Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from the Ozarks northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Central High Plains The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave mid-level trough over eastern Colorado. An axis of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP just ahead of this feature from near the Colorado-Kansas state line southeastward into the Oklahoma Panhandle. An isolated supercell is currently ongoing near the instability axis near Lamar, Colorado. RAP forecast soundings ahead of this cell across far southwest Kansas early this evening have MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7 C/km. This environment will continue to support supercells capable of large hail and wind damage. The threat could persist into the mid to late evening with parts of southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma Panhandle being affected. Later this evening, short-term model forecasts also suggest that redevelopment may occur to the east of the Denver Metro, with a new cluster potentially tracking southeastward near the instability axis. This activity could also pose a large hail and wind damage threat. Ozarks into the Ohio Valley Several minor perturbations, embedded in westerly flow aloft, appear to moving through a corridor from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. The most pronounced feature appears to be located in southeastern Indiana, ahead of which a small cluster of severe storms is ongoing. Along the projected track of these storms, the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range with 0-6 km around 35 knots. This should continue to support an isolated wind-damage threat for a couple more hours early this evening...see MCD 2319. Further southwest into the parts of the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, moderate instability is analyzed by the RAP from far northeast Oklahoma northeastward into south-central Illinois. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. These storms may be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts for another hour or two this evening...see MCD 2318.











