A cold front was stalled over the South and Southeast last week, leading to widespread rain and drought improvements. While a few cold fronts clipped the Northern Tier and monsoonal moisture started to surge northward into the Southwest, mixed results were made to abnormally dry and drought conditions in the West and Northern Tier.

West

Hot and dry weather prevailed throughout much of the West last week as high pressure controlled the weather. Some places reported temperatures that were slightly above average, while others set all-time record highs. This includes readings of 115 degrees in Miles City, Mont., and 111 degrees in Billings, Mont., on Sunday, July 12. The impacts of this heat wave on ongoing drought conditions will be assessed in the coming days.

The one exception was parts of the Southwest that saw an influx of monsoonal moisture. In southeastern Arizona, rainfall amounts totaling 1 to 2 inches were recorded. However, this was not enough to improve abnormally dry or drought conditions.

Drought and abnormally dry conditions were reassessed in southeastern New Mexico, where there were localized improvements to severe drought (D2) as soil moisture, streamflow and mid-term precipitation deficits have recently improved. Localized improvements to extreme drought (D3) also occurred in parts of Utah, where short-term precipitation deficits lessened. Though, widespread severe and extreme drought (D2-D3) was still taking place across most of the state amid poor streamflow across Utah.

Conversely, short- and mid-term precipitation deficits, recent warm temperatures and poor soil moisture led to the expansion of moderate and severe drought (D1-D2) throughout Washington State.

High Plains

A series of weather disturbances moved across the High Plains region over the last week, bringing daily or almost daily rain showers and thunderstorms to the region. Rain amounts exceeding 2 inches fell last week in northeastern South Dakota and from parts of south-central Nebraska southeast through parts of northeastern Kansas. Spotty heavy rain amounts in the 1.5 to 2-inch range fell across eastern Colorado, western Kansas, western Nebraska and southwestern South Dakota as well as a few areas in North Dakota. Temperatures remain near to slightly above average throughout the week.

As a result of the rainy weather, most spots saw improvements to the drought depiction. This includes localized improvements in eastern Colorado, western Kansas and western Nebraska, where soil moisture improved and precipitation deficits decreased in severity. Most notably, extreme and exception drought did contract slightly in western Nebraska, while abnormally dry and moderate to severe drought (D0-D2) had improvements elsewhere. Widespread improvement to ongoing moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0) occurred in northeastern South Dakota, where the heaviest rains fell.

At the same time, parts of central Colorado saw the drought depiction worsen given drier, warm weather over the past several weeks. This includes an expansion to both extreme and exceptional drought (D3-D4). in eastern North Dakota, short-term precipitation deficits combined with reduced soil moisture resulted in widespread expansion of abnormal dryness along with the introduction of a small area of moderate drought (D1). A few areas in north-central and northwestern South Dakota had a few degradations to abnormally dry and moderate drought (D0-D1), where short- and mid-term precipitation deficits and low soil moisture occurred.

Midwest

Rainfall was hit-or-miss throughout the Midwest last week. A stalled cold front remained close enough to the southern half of the region to foster daily or almost daily chances of rain and thunderstorms. Some heavy rain did occur, including the area from south of St. Louis in east-central Missouri into southern Illinois, far southern Indiana and much of Kentucky. Flash flooding impacted some areas south of St. Louis as a result of the heavy rain, where amounts exceeded 5 inches across a widespread area.

These rains helped lessen or eliminate precipitation deficits across many areas, leading to widespread improvements to the drought depiction. This includes the removal of an area of severe drought (D2) in south-central Kentucky and moderate drought (D1) in southern Illinois. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) also contracted in these areas.

Farther north, mostly dry weather occurred, with a few exceptions. Heavier rains of 2 to 4 inches fell in north-central Iowa, leading to localized improvements to ongoing moderate drought (D1) and abnormal dryness (D0). A narrow area of 2-inch rainfall occurred across central Minnesota, though this was not enough to improve drying conditions in this region overall. Heavier rain amounts in the Keweenaw Peninsula in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula alleviated short-term precipitation deficits there, and abnormal dryness (D0) was removed.

In northern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin, and in the far western reaches of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, short-term precipitation deficits grew amid declining soil moisture and streamflow, leading to widespread development or expansion of abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1). There was also a small increase in severe drought (D2) coverage in northern Minnesota. Isolated areas of moderate drought (D1) also developed in eastern Wisconsin, where short-term dryness led to similar conditions to areas farther north, albeit less widespread. In western Iowa, short-term precipitation deficits increase and soil moisture levels dropped, leading to an expansion of moderate drought (D1).

South

A cold front stalled over the South for much of last week, leading to wet, stormy weather daily or almost daily. The heaviest rains exceeded 5 inches in parts of Texas and Louisiana, while 2 to 5 inches of rain were common in parts of Tennessee. Overall, temperatures remain near to slightly above normal.

From eastern Texas across Louisiana, and in Tennessee and far northeastern Arkansas, this week’s rains lessened or locally eliminated precipitation deficits and led to improvements in soil moisture and streamflows. Conditions were also reassessed and improved in parts of western and northern Arkansas, where recent precipitation has lessened mid-term precipitation deficits and locally improved streamflow and soil moisture.

Improvements were made to the drought depiction throughout Texas, western/southern Oklahoma, most of Arkansas, most of Tennessee, northern/western Louisiana and far west-central Mississippi. Exceptional drought (D4) improved in southeastern Arkansas, while extreme drought (D3) contracted in Arkansas and the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. Improvements also occurred to abnormally dry and moderate to severe drought (D0-D2) elsewhere.

No spots saw abnormal dryness or drought degrade last week.

Southeast

The same cold front stalled over the South also brought widespread moderate to heavy rain to much of the Southeast last week, especially in Virginia and the Carolinas. Despite temperatures remaining near to above normal, the locally heavy rains and widespread moderate amounts mostly resulted in improvements or put a halt on further degradation of ongoing drought.

Isolated spots in central Virginia and south-central North Carolina saw extreme and exceptional drought (D3-D4) expand, where 6-month precipitation deficits continued to grow, and soil moisture and streamflow sank further below normal.

Elsewhere, improvements were widespread in North Carolina and Virginia, while isolated locations in South Carolina, Georgia and the Florida Panhandle improved. Recent rainfall, especially from last week, helped to lessen short-term precipitation deficits that were starting to build in areas already suffering from long-term drought or abnormal dryness. These improvements were made to abnormally dry and moderate to severe drought (D0-D2).

Northeast

The southern half of the Northeast was under the influence of a stalled cold front for much of last week, which allowed for heavier rainfall amounts over 2 inches. There were also a few fast-moving weather disturbances that clipped the interior Northeast. This brought some rain and thunderstorms. Overall, temperatures remain near to slightly above normal.

Given improved streamflows and soil moisture and lessened short-term precipitation deficits, improvements were made to eastern/southern West Virginia, parts of Maryland, Delaware, southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, southeastern New York, western and far eastern Massachusetts and southern Connecticut. This includes improvements to abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought (D0-D2).

Short-term rainfall deficits grew in eastern Maine along with lowering streamflow, leading to a small expansion of abnormal dryness, though no drought areas expanded or were introduced in the Northeast this week.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead to the next drought monitoring period, mostly dry conditions are expected across much of the Great Plains, Midwest and West Coast. The one exception will be the Southwest, where a surge of monsoonal moisture triggers daily rain and thunderstorms. Here, heavy rain will be likely, with localized totals of 2 to 5 inches possible in parts of Arizona. Additional heavy rain also looks to extend into western New Mexico, southwest Colorado, portions of Utah, and parts of Wyoming and south-central Montana. Areas of south-central and southwest Texas are also expected to receive significant rainfall.

Elsewhere, moderate rainfall is forecast from the southern Appalachians to the Northeast, across parts of coastal North Carolina, northern Michigan, and the Florida Big Bend, although the heaviest rain near Florida is expected to remain offshore.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

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