Active Weather, Drought Improvements for Eastern Half; Drying Persists Elsewhere
Multiple weather systems impacted the eastern half of the U.S. this week, leading to improving drought conditions for most. Meanwhile, the western half of the nation had drought conditions worsen after observing a generally mild, windy and dry weather pattern.
Northeast
A series of weather systems moved across the Northeast last week, which brought rain and snow. Higher elevations and interior locations remained colder than the coast, so snow was the predominant precipitation type. However, there were brief periods where sleet, freezing rain and rain occurred. Closer to the coast, rain was seen most often, but some snow did mix in at times.
Total liquid precipitation amounts ranged from 0.5 to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches. Two or more inches of liquid precipitation was most common downwind of lakes Erie and Ontario, central and northeastern Pennsylvania, Connecticut and eastern Maine. Most areas saw conditions improve this week as long-term precipitation deficits lessened and groundwater levels rose.
Improvements were noted in northern, western and southeastern New York (including western Long Island), parts of Massachusetts, most of Rhode Island, central Connecticut, most of New Jersey and central and eastern Pennsylvania. Most notably, an area of extreme drought (D3) was removed from northwestern New Jersey, while a small area of severe drought (D2) was removed in central Massachusetts. Severe drought (D2) also contracted in eastern Pennsylvania. Otherwise, improvements were made to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1).
Southeast
The Southeast saw mixed results to the drought depiction this week, with a variety of conditions improving, worsening or remaining unchanged. There were two powerful cold fronts that moved across the region last week – one towards the start of the period and another towards the end. Rain fell throughout the Southeast, but parts of the western Carolinas did see some wet snow at times.
Heavy rain fell this week in central and northeastern Alabama into northwestern Georgia, where amounts checked in at or above 2 inches for most locations. Given the very dry conditions, this rain acted more to prevent worsening existing drought.
Widespread improvements to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) were made in central Alabama due to improving soil moisture and precipitation deficits. Other localized improvements were made to severe drought (D2) in west-central and central Georgia, a small area of south-central and northeastern South Carolina and western and central North Carolina. Heavy rain also fell in parts of Miami-Dade County in southern Florida. This allowed for small improvements to extreme drought (D3). Though, the benefit of the heavy rain was likely limited given runoff and very low water levels in the Everglades. Airboat operators in the Everglades have recently had to pause or re-route tours given how low water levels have been there.
Most notably, exceptional drought (D4) was introduced in south-central Georgia and a small part of northern Florida. Over 90 percent of Florida remains in severe to exceptional (D2-D4) drought. Elsewhere, western Virginia saw an expansion of severe drought (D2).
South
Like the Southeast, there were two cold fronts that moved across the South this week. However, any precipitation from the fronts was mainly limited to eastern portions of the region. Parts of eastern Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee all benefitted from localized rain amounts of at least 2 inches. Meanwhile, deep south Texas, western Texas and northern and western Oklahoma all remained dry.
With improving soil moisture level and precipitation deficits, improvements to the drought depiction were made in southeastern Arkansas, northern and western Louisiana, spotty parts of western Mississippi, a localized area of southeastern Oklahoma and eastern Texas. Southeastern Oklahoma saw moderate drought (D1) contract slightly, while moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3) improved elsewhere. A small area of improvement was also made near the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area.
In contrast, an area of severe drought (D2) was added to the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles, while exceptional drought (D4) worsened in far southern Texas. The city of Corpus Christi is facing increasing water restrictions as a result of the exceptional drought conditions. Also, severe to extreme drought (D2-D3) expanded in southwestern Oklahoma and central, southern and north-central Texas.
Despite heavier rains, a small area of extreme drought (D3) shifted to the northeast in southeastern Tennessee due to very large precipitation deficits that continued this week. Growing short-term precipitation deficits led to the development of severe drought (D2) in a small area of northwestern Tennessee.
Midwest
A strong low pressure system traversed the Great Plains into the Midwest, bringing widespread strong winds, locally heavy rain and a powerful blizzard to the Upper Great Lakes. Weekly liquid precipitation amounts ranged from 2 to 3 inches or more from central and northern Illinois to eastern Wisconsin, the central and eastern Michigan Upper Peninsula, much of Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and northern Indiana.
Widespread improvements were made throughout the Midwest this week thanks to decreasing precipitation deficits and improving soil moisture and streamflows. Areas that saw improvement this week include east-central Minnesota, northwestern and central Iowa, northwestern Ohio, Michigan’s Lower Peninsula and much of Iowa, Missouri and Illinois. Extreme drought (D3) shrunk across east-central Illinois, central Indiana and northwestern Ohio as well as south-central Missouri. Severe drought (D2) also contracted across these locations along with east-central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. Otherwise, any additional improvements were made to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1).
High Plains
While the eastern half of the U.S. was quite active, much of the High Plains region was plagued by dry, windy conditions and unseasonably warm temperatures. The one exception was North Dakota and northern parts of South Dakota, where there was colder than normal temperatures and some light precipitation. Unfortunately, this did occur over areas that are completely or mostly free of abnormal dryness and drought.
Degradations occurred in southern South Dakota, much of Nebraska, western Kansas and southern Colorado (including the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and parts of the San Juan Mountains). Existing areas of extreme drought (D3) in Nebraska expanded, while new areas of extreme drought were also introduced to other parts of Nebraska. Small areas of extreme drought (D3) were added to southwestern South Dakota in the Black Hills region and south-central Colorado. Severe drought (D2) worsened in southern South Dakota, most of Nebraska and south-central Colorado, with abnormal dryness and moderate expanding elsewhere.
Deadly wildfires occurred in western Nebraska this week. The Morrill Fire burned over 640,000 acres, and is the largest fire ever recorded in the Cornhusker state. This fire, and others across Nebraska, occurred amid weather conditions favorable for fire growth and a background of worsening drought conditions.
West
An active weather pattern was observed in parts of the Northwest over the last week as a surge of Pacific moisture was transferred into the region. Despite there being daily or almost daily chances for precipitation, temperatures remained well above normal and snow was limited to the tallest peaks. Meanwhile, it remained dry across the Southwest this week.
While rain and mountain snow was beneficial in the Northwest, current drought conditions throughout the West continue to be headlined by a snow drought this week. Throughout this winter, snowpack conditions have largely been below normal given these unseasonably warm temperatures. Now, the mild temperatures are melting what little snowpack there is. Some snow-water monitoring sites in the region have seen near-full or full melting of snowpack. This combination of drier- and warmer-than-normal weather and snow drought may set the state for drought conditions to worsen in the coming weeks if weather conditions remain warm and dry.
There were some localized improvements to south-central Washington, north-central Oregon and western Montana. Western Montana picked up heavier mountain snow this week, which improved snowpack in some mountain ranges. Here, improvements were made to abnormally dry and moderate to extreme drought (D0-D3). Abnormally dry (D0) conditions also contracted in south-central Washington and north-central Oregon.
At the same time, degradations were seen throughout central Oregon, southwestern Idaho, northern and western Nevada, east-central California, much of Arizona and northern and south-central New Mexico. Severe drought (D2) increased in coverage across northwestern Arizona and southwestern Idaho into north-central Nevada, while a new area of severe drought was added to northeastern New Mexico. Abnormal dryness (D0) was expand across western Nevada into east-central California, which includes parts of the Sierra Nevada and the Lake Tahoe area, while abnormal dryness to moderate drought (D1) worsened for all other areas.
Looking Ahead
The forecast during the next drought monitoring period calls for mostly dry weather across a large swath of the Contiguous U.S. Precipitation totaling 0.5 to 1 inch may fall from West Virginia into New York, and in spots in New England. Similar precipitation amounts are likely in parts of northwestern Montana and the Idaho Panhandle. Western Washington looks to receive widespread precipitation amounts of at least an inch, with some favored mountainous areas forecast to receive 2.5-5 inches of precipitation, with locally higher amounts. Elsewhere, the forecast calls for precipitation amounts to remain at or below 0.5 inches, with most of the Great Plains, Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys, and the Gulf Coast states likely to remain completely dry.
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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor