
NOAA's Winter 2026–2027 Outlook
Winter is right around the corner, and El Niño could play a big role in how the season unfolds across the United States.
# HEADLINE -------------------- FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING # DETAILS -------------------- WHAT Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. WHERE All of northern and central Arizona. WHEN Through Thursday evening. IMPACTS Flash flooding will be possible in creeks, normally dry washes, swimming holes, and over recently burned areas. Low-water crossings may be flooded. ADDITIONAL DETAILS - An upper-level trough will bring a deep surge of subtropical and tropical moisture into our region. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across much of northern and central Arizona early Wednesday morning and continue through Thursday evening. Stronger thunderstorms will bring threats of Flash Flooding, while more prolonged rainfall could lead to elevated flow in streams, rivers, and washes. - Additional information is available at weather.gov/flagstaff. ISSUED AT Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 5:53 AM MST ISSUED BY National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ HEADER Flood Watch # PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS -------------------- Have a way to receive Flash Flood Warnings and be prepared to take action should warnings be issued. # AREAS AFFECTED -------------------- Coconino Plateau, Little Colorado River Valley in Navajo County, Northeast Plateaus and Mesas South of Hwy 264, Black Mesa Area, Chinle Valley, Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau, Eastern Mogollon Rim, Grand Canyon Country, Kaibab Plateau, Little Colorado River Valley in Apache County, Little Colorado River Valley in Coconino County, Marble and Glen Canyons, Northeast Plateaus and Mesas Hwy 264 Northward, Northern Gila County, Oak Creek and Sycamore Canyons, Western Mogollon Rim, White Mountains, Yavapai County Mountains, Yavapai County Valleys and Basins Including the cities of Seligman, Page, Steamboat Canyon, Happy Jack, Cordes Junction, Show Low, Klagetoh, Canyon De Chelly, Heber, Supai, Navajo National Monument, Munds Park, Payson, Springerville, Dilkon, Shonto, Village of Oak Creek, Lees Ferry, Tuba City, Young, Camp Verde, Bagdad, Wide Ruins, Flagstaff, Kaibito, Fort Defiance, Fredonia, Holbrook, Grand Canyon North Rim, Cottonwood, Pinetop-Lakeside, St. Johns, Keams Canyon, Wupatki National Monument, Sedona, Kykotsmovi, Winslow, Crown King, Prescott, Jacob Lake, Williams, Forest Lakes, Window Rock, Snowflake, Greer, Jadito, Chinle, Kayenta, Strawberry, Ash Fork, Ganado, Chambers, Sanders, Tusayan, Grand Canyon Village, and Valle
There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARIZONA/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FOUR CORNERS SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Southwest, with the most intense cells expected across parts of Arizona and western New Mexico this afternoon and evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible. Arizona/Four Corners and Great Basin Another active and relatively rare setup from a climatological perspective continues regionally, and will tend to shift east-northeastward through the afternoon and evening. This will be as the upper low in vicinity of the SoCal coast continues to become more northeastward progressive today, reaching portions of the Great Basin and lower Colorado River Valley by this evening. Scenario will continue to favor supercells, particularly for eastern Arizona and western New Mexico from a longer-duration and tornado perspective, as low-level winds otherwise will tend to take on more of a westerly component over time farther west across Arizona as the upper trough approaches. Severe probabilities have been increased/expanded northward toward the Four Corners/Colorado Plateau vicinity, where an atypically rare setup of deep-layer/low-level shear coincident with modest but adequate severe-conducive degree of destabilization is expected. As compared to yesterday, a greater coverage of storms will likely exist by later today/afternoon, which may mean a less-discrete nature of the supercells, but with more numerous severe-caliber/supercell storms capable of large hail, damaging winds and a tornado risk. Recent Tucson WSR-88D VWP data still reflects strong low-level shear/SRH and (splitting) supercell-favorable deep-layer wind profiles, with the probability that tornado potential will probably maximize across eastern Arizona/far western New Mexico this afternoon into evening, especially where topography influences a low-level easterly wind component. Large hail will be associated with both left-moving and right-moving supercells. Farther north-northwest into the Great Basin, both low-level moisture and related MLCAPE are generally more limited. Even so, multiple corridors of isolated severe hail/wind and brief tornado potential will exist this afternoon. This will be as semi-low-topped convection develops ahead of the eastward-translating upper trough/low amid strong southerly flow/shear through much of the troposphere.

Winter is right around the corner, and El Niño could play a big role in how the season unfolds across the United States.










