Weather Alerts For Commerce, GA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD...AND IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard and in southern Arizona. Severe gusts and hail may also occur in parts of the western Great Lakes. A few strong gusts will also be possible in northeast Montana, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast. Southern North Carolina/South Carolina/Far Eastern Georgia A mid-level shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery from the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. At the surface, a cold front is located over southern North Carolina. To the south of the front, a very moist air is in place with dewpoints in the 70s F, which is contributing to moderate instability. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across much of this airmass from southern North Carolina into eastern Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Wilmington, North Carolina and Colubmia, South Carolina have 0-6 km shear in the 20 to 30 knot range. This environment may support a threat for severe wind gusts for another hour early this evening. Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast A very moist airmass is in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. Over much of the region, the RAP has moderate instability, with surface dewpoints in the 70s F. Numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from north-central Texas eastward into southern Alabama. Along this corridor, the instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates will support a threat for isolated severe gusts for another hour or two. Southern Arizona At the surface, a sufficiently moist airmass is in place over southern and central Arizona. In this area, the RAP has an axis of moderate instability analyzed with SBCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are ongoing just to the west of the instability axis, and these storms will continue to move westward across southern and western Arizona this evening. Large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads and steep low-level lapse rate will continue to support a potential for severe wind gusts...see MCD 1609. Western Great Lakes North-northwesterly mid-level flow is located over the western Great Lakes, where a moist airmass is present. Surface dewpoints are in the 60s and lower 70s F, and the RAP has an axis of moderate instability from northern Wisconsin into Upper Michigan. Scattered strong to severe storms are ongoing further north over southern Ontario. One of these cells could remain intact and move southward across Lake Superior into Upper Michigan this evening. In that case, the instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear would support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts and hail. Northern Montana Southwest mid-level flow is in place over the northwestern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located over central and northeast Montana, where isolated thunderstorms are ongoing. Near and ahead of the front in northeast Montana, the RAP is analyzing moderate instability. Thunderstorms that move in and toward the stronger instability over the next couple of hours, may produce isolated severe wind gusts...see MCD 1610.