
NOAA's Winter 2026–2027 Outlook
Winter is right around the corner, and El Niño could play a big role in how the season unfolds across the United States.
# HEADLINE -------------------- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING # SUMMARY -------------------- Duck NC MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 2.8 ft Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/04 PM 5.5 1.8 2.1 9 Minor 22/04 AM 5.5 1.8 2.2 9 Minor 22/05 PM 5.3 1.6 1.8 6-7 None 23/05 AM 5.1 1.4 1.4 5 None 23/05 PM 5.0 1.3 1.6 5-6 None 24/06 AM 5.2 1.5 1.1 6 None # DETAILS -------------------- WHAT For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 11 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves expected in the surf zone. WHERE Northern Outer Banks. WHEN For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Thursday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening. IMPACTS Up to 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. ADDITIONAL DETAILS The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 10:53 AM Thursday. ISSUED AT Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 8:28 PM EDT ISSUED BY National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC HEADER Coastal Hazard Message # PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS -------------------- If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. # AREAS AFFECTED -------------------- Northern Outer Banks
# HEADLINE -------------------- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING # SUMMARY -------------------- Duck NC MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 2.8 ft Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/04 PM 5.5 1.8 2.1 9 Minor 22/04 AM 5.5 1.8 2.2 9 Minor 22/05 PM 5.3 1.6 1.8 6-7 None 23/05 AM 5.1 1.4 1.4 5 None 23/05 PM 5.0 1.3 1.6 5-6 None 24/06 AM 5.2 1.5 1.1 6 None # DETAILS -------------------- WHAT For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 11 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves expected in the surf zone. WHERE Northern Outer Banks. WHEN For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Thursday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening. IMPACTS Up to 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. ADDITIONAL DETAILS The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 10:53 AM Thursday. ISSUED AT Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 8:28 PM EDT ISSUED BY National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC HEADER Coastal Hazard Message # PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS -------------------- If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. # AREAS AFFECTED -------------------- Northern Outer Banks
# HEADLINE -------------------- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING # SUMMARY -------------------- Duck NC MLLW Categories - Minor 5.5 ft, Moderate 6.0 ft, Major 6.5 ft MHHW Categories - Minor 1.8 ft, Moderate 2.3 ft, Major 2.8 ft Total Total Departure Day/Time Tide Tide from Norm Waves Flood ft MLLW ft MHHW ft ft Impact -------- --------- --------- --------- ------- -------- 21/04 PM 5.5 1.8 2.1 9 Minor 22/04 AM 5.5 1.8 2.2 9 Minor 22/05 PM 5.3 1.6 1.8 6-7 None 23/05 AM 5.1 1.4 1.4 5 None 23/05 PM 5.0 1.3 1.6 5-6 None 24/06 AM 5.2 1.5 1.1 6 None # DETAILS -------------------- WHAT For the Coastal Flood Advisory, up to 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of 7 to 11 feet in the surf zone. For the Beach Hazards Statement, dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves expected in the surf zone. WHERE Northern Outer Banks. WHEN For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Thursday. For the Beach Hazards Statement, from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening. IMPACTS Up to 1 to 3 feet of inundation above ground level is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways resulting in a low threat of property damage. Some roads and low lying property including parking lots, parks, lawns, and homes adjacent to the waterfront will experience shallow flooding. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water. Dangerous shore break can throw a swimmer or surfer head first into the bottom causing neck and back injuries. ADDITIONAL DETAILS The most likely time for strong rip currents to occur is a couple hours either side of low tide, which will occur around 10:53 AM Thursday. ISSUED AT Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 8:28 PM EDT ISSUED BY National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC HEADER Coastal Hazard Message # PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS -------------------- If travel is required, allow extra time as some roads may be closed. Do not drive around barricades or through water of unknown depth. Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. Inexperienced swimmers should remain out of the water due to dangerous surf conditions. Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times. # AREAS AFFECTED -------------------- Northern Outer Banks

Winter is right around the corner, and El Niño could play a big role in how the season unfolds across the United States.










