Weather Alerts For Local, MO

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. Southern Plains/Ozarks At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around 750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5 C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks. Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet, will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a brief tornado. At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this possibility.