Weather Alerts For Melvindale, MI

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE ARKLATEX SUMMARY Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from parts of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. The greatest threat for supercells with very large hail (2+ inches) should focus across parts of southeast Oklahoma into the ArkLaTex. Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex/Lower Mississippi Valley A band of mainly sub-severe thunderstorms ongoing this morning from eastern OK into AR and southern MO is being aided by southwesterly warm/moist advection at low levels. With time, this forcing should weaken, and a decrease in convective intensity should continue through late morning. Outflow from this convection is forecast to extend from south-central/southeast OK into AR this afternoon, and should serve as a focus for additional robust thunderstorms later today. Daytime heating of a moist airmass already present across much of the southern Plains into the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley will aid in the development of moderate to strong instability by mid afternoon along/south of the residual outflow and east of a surface dryline extending from northeast to south-central TX. The greatest instability should exist across southeast OK/northeast TX, where steep mid-level lapse rates will likely still exist. A weak surface low should also be in place across northeast TX by mid to late afternoon. Large-scale forcing aloft will remain fairly nebulous/weak across the southern Plains this afternoon, as a prominent/closed upper-level low remains centered over south-central Canada. Still, multiple robust thunderstorms should develop by 19-22Z across southeast OK along/near the residual outflow boundary as MLCIN becomes minimal with robust diurnal heating, and as westerly mid/upper-level flow modestly strengthens across the ArkLaTex through early evening. This convection will become organized and likely supercellular given the presence of around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. Large to very large hail (potentially up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) should be the main threat with these cells initially. Lower confidence in convective initiation exists with southwestward extent along the dryline in TX, but at least a conditional/low threat for severe hail remains apparent. With time, some clustering may occur with an increased damaging wind threat as convection spreads east-southeastward across the ArkLaTex through the evening. One or more clusters may also redevelop along the outflow from ongoing convection across the lower MS Valley this afternoon, with a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds. Low-level flow is not forecast to be overly strong (15-25 kt at 850 mb), but ample instability and the presence of locally backed near-surface winds near the outflow boundary may support enough 0-1 km SRH for a few tornadoes, especially across southeast OK into the ArkLaTex with any persistent supercells. An Enhanced Risk has been introduced across this region given increased confidence in multiple supercells with significant severe hail potential developing through the afternoon/evening. Great Lakes/Ohio Valley A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward across the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. Convection ahead of a cold front has generally weakened this morning across the mid MS Valley. Modest low-level moisture is forecast to continue advancing northward through the day ahead of the front, supporting weak instability with filtered daytime heating. Loosely organized clusters/cells that develop this afternoon may pose an isolated threat for damaging winds as they move northeastward this afternoon/evening.

Pollen Index: 10.6 Pollen Level: high Predominant Pollen: Poplar/Aspen/Cottonwood, Ash and Birch. Based on past pollen counts and expected weather conditions, pollen levels for Saturday will remain stable in the very high range. Pollen producing plants are at a relatively steady level of pollination at this time.