Weather Alerts For Mesquite, TX

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTH TEXAS SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms with very large to giant hail (2 to 4+ inches in diameter), tornadoes, and scattered damaging winds are expected late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the southern Plains and ArkLaTex. A couple of strong tornadoes are possible. Southern Plains and ArkLaTex While stratus remains semi-prevalent this morning along/north of the near-stationary front, strong to locally extreme instability (MLCAPE 2500-4000+ J/kg) is expected to develop along/east of the dryline in Texas and Red River-vicinity triple point, and to the south of slow-northward-shifting warm front in Oklahoma by peak afternoon heating. The presence of seasonably cool temperatures aloft and 7.5-8.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates will also support this very unstable thermodynamic environment. While large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting mid-level shortwave trough is not expected to be overly robust, the arrival of a shortwave trough/mid-level speed max will be favorably timed atop the warm sector. At least widely scattered thunderstorm initiation is expected by mid/late afternoon to early evening (around 20-23Z), especially near the warm front/dryline intersection and a bit north across south-central/east-central Oklahoma. 40-50 kt of generally westerly effective bulk shear will support intense supercells, with multiple right/left splits expected. This activity will quickly intensify shortly after convective initiation, and very large to giant hail appears likely (2-4+ inches in diameter). The potential exists for multiple intense supercells to track east-southeastward along/near the warm front. A conditional risk for supercells remains apparent farther south along the length of the dryline in TX, although confidence in convective initiation remains low, but at least isolated but intense deep convective development is plausible, especially in closer proximity to the surface triple point across North Texas. Modest southerly low-level winds (around 20-30 kt at 850 mb) will be present through this evening across the southern Plains. Locally enhanced 0-1 km SRH will exist near the warm front with backed near-surface winds. This will support a threat for tornadoes with any right-split supercells that remain surface based. A slight increase in the low-level jet this evening and presence of very strong to locally extreme buoyancy also suggests some threat for a few EF-2+ tornadoes. With time this evening, convection may grow upscale and pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds as storm clusters move southeastward across the Red River toward and across the ArkLaTex. Central Plains including Kansas/Nebraska Farther north, instability and low-level moisture is expected to remain weaker/more limited. But, some supercells/small clusters are expected to develop this afternoon and move east-northeastward given sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization. Isolated to scattered severe hail and damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity through mid-evening before eventually weakening. Lower Mississippi Valley/Middle Gulf Coast Strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later today as outflow modifies in the wake of the early morning MCS, with the potential that additional storms, potentially in the form of another MCS, approach the region from the northwest late tonight.

Pollen Index: 8.7 Pollen Level: medium-high Predominant Pollen: Poplar/Aspen/Cottonwood, Grass and Hackberry. The pollen levels for Sunday will remain relatively stable in the high range. The pollen producing plants are delivering a fairly constant level of pollen into the air.