Severe Storm Risk - Dixon, KY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. IA/IL/MO/WI Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong shortwave trough over northeast KS, with an associated mid-level jet and dry-slot rotating around the base of the trough into western MO. A deep surface low currently south of OMA will track northeastward across IA this afternoon, with a tight gradient of low-level moisture and instability along the track of the low. Very strong low-level shear and sufficient CAPE in the warm sector will pose a risk of fast-moving supercells capable of damaging winds, tornadoes (possibly strong), and hail. The area of greatest concern is over eastern IA into northern IL and far southern WI. Perhaps the biggest forecast uncertainty is the widespread cloud cover and limited diurnal destabilization, but the approaching dry slot may compensate by mid-afternoon and allow a period of afternoon heating. The coverage of storms with southward extent is uncertain across eastern MO and central/southern IL. Recent CAM solutions continue to show only widely scattered discrete development across this corridor. However, given the forecast of strong low-level shear and favorable synoptic forcing, those storms that do form would pose a risk of damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Eastern IL/IN/Lower MI Strong southerly low-level winds will maintain 60s dewpoints across eastern IL/western IN, and result in the warm front lifting northward into southern Lower MI by this evening. This will provide a favorable environment for a few severe storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps a few tornadoes.