Weather Alerts For Dixon, KY

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUMMARY Severe thunderstorms capable of producing a few tornadoes appear probable across parts of eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, and southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Additionally, damaging thunderstorm winds will be possible from eastern Iowa northeast into Michigan. Synopsis Early morning satellite and radar imagery show an extensive warm conveyor, with embedded showers and thunderstorms, extending from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest, with some westward branching noted over the Mid MO Valley. This warm conveyor is associated with shortwave trough currently progressing through the central Plains. Recent surface analysis places a surface low just ahead of this wave over central KS, with a warm front extending eastward from the low into the middle OH Valley and a dryline extending south-southwestward from this low through the TX Trans Pecos. Expectation is for this shortwave to eject quickly northeastward throughout the day, maintaining a negative tilt as it progresses through the Mid MO Valley and Upper Midwest before ending the period over northeastern Ontario. The associated surface low will move quickly northeastward as well, progressing across southern and eastern IA and southern WI before occluding over upper MI tonight. Warm front attendant to this low will move northward as well, bringing low 60s dewpoints into eastern IA, northern IL, and southern WI before a cold front moves through. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along and ahead of the cold front over much of the Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys, with the highest potential for severe thunderstorms from eastern Iowa, northern IL, and far southern WI. Northern MO/Southern IA across southern WI/northern IL into Lower MI Extensive area of showers and thunderstorms is currently ongoing from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the warm conveyor mentioned in the synopsis. Moderate to strong southerly low-level flow exists within this warm sector. Progression of the negatively tilted shortwave and associated surface low mentioned in the synopsis will lead to a strengthening of this low-level flow, with attendant moisture advection into more of the Mid MS Valley. Some eastward displacement of the warm conveyor is anticipated, leaving the potential for airmass destabilization ahead of the surface low and cold front. This is supported by most of the guidance, which depicts a corridor of surface-based buoyancy and little to no convective inhibition from eastern IA/northern IL into central/east TX by the early afternoon. Best forcing for ascent within this corridor will be over the Upper Midwest and Mid MS Valley, particularly from southern/eastern IA into northern IL/southern WI, as both the shortwave and surface low move through the region. The strongest vertical shear will be over this region as well, supporting the potential for supercells with the initial, more cellular development. Very strong low-level shear supports a heightened tornado potential with any supercells, including the possibility of strong (EF2+) tornadoes. Given the linear forcing along the approaching cold front, a transition to a more linear storm mode is anticipated, although there is some uncertainty to how fast this transition occurs. The strength of the low-level flow supports a continued risk for tornadoes within any convective lines, but the primary hazard once any lines develop will become strong gusts. Kinematic fields are strong enough to support 60 to 80 mph gusts. Additionally, despite weakening buoyancy, strong ascent and robust kinematic fields support the potential for damaging gusts across much of Lower MI later tonight. Mid MS and Lower OH Valleys into the Mid-South As previously mentioned, showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing from central TX into the Upper Midwest, within the extensive warm conveyor mentioned in the synopsis. There is some potential for reintensification of these showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon/early evening from central/eastern IL into the northeast AR/MO Bootheel, supported my modest destabilization and increasing ascent. Storm structures will likely be somewhat shallow, but strong flow will still support the potential for damaging gusts within any bowing line segments. A brief tornado is possible as well. Airmass destabilization is also anticipated west of this warm conveyor, but ahead of the cold front, from central IL into central/southern MO and northern AR. Much of this area will be displaced south and west of the departing shortwave trough and surface low, limiting large-scale ascent. However, some modest ascent is possible along a weak lagging upper trough, which could be enough to promote additional development. If updrafts can be maintained, parameters support the potential for strong to severe storms capable. Large hail is the primary risk, but a low-probability tornado risk exists as well.

Pollen Index: 11 Pollen Level: high Predominant Pollen: Cedar/Juniper, Elm and Maple. Concentration of pollen grains in the air for Friday will be falling but will remain in the high range. Since the weather has a major influence on pollen dispersal, this decrease is due in part to rising humidity, weakening winds and expected precipitation in the morning, afternoon and evening which tends to wash pollen out of the air.