Severe Storm Risk - Donnellson, IL

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...AND FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO FAR WESTERN KANSAS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of Oklahoma and from eastern Colorado into far western Kansas. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, and from the Ozarks eastward into the Ohio Valley. Central/North TX into central/eastern OK Surface analysis places a low over central OK, along a cold front that arcs from northeast OK into southwest OK and then back up through the central TX Panhandle. This low also precedes a shortwave trough moving into western OK. The cold front is forecast to shift southward/southeastward today as the shortwave continues eastward. The airmass ahead of this front will be warm, moist, and moderately buoyant, and thunderstorm development is expected from central/eastern OK into central TX. Mid-level flow is slightly stronger across OK, supporting a greater potential for strong to severe storms. A more isolated severe risk exists across TX where a more disorganized storm mode is likely. Primary threat is damaging gusts from 55 to 65 mph. Central High Plains An easterly component to low-level flow north of the surface front will maintain a fetch of moisture (50s deg F surface dewpoints) across eastern CO this afternoon. This moisture, combined with heating and cool temperatures aloft, will enable moderate destabilization by afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as ascent attendant to the mid-level cyclone over WY persists across the region. Moderate mid-level westerly flow will also persist throughout the base of this cyclone, resulting in moderate to strong vertical shear across the region this afternoon and evening. Storm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered (largely due to cooler surface temperatures and some lingering convective inhibition), but any storms that do form and mature will likely be supercellular. Primary severe hazard is large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter), but isolated severe gusts are possible as well. Some lingering severe risk may eventually develop over southeast CO late this evening and spread into the OK Panhandle overnight. Ozarks into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Recent surface analysis places lows over central PA, central IL, central MO, and central OK. An arcing stationary boundary extends between these features, with this boundary largely demarcated by a subtle wind shift. Current water vapor satellite imagery shows several convectively augmented vorticity maxima within this corridor as well. These vorticity maxima are forecast to progress eastward/northeastward along the northern periphery of a weakened mid-level anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf Coast, augmenting low-level convergence and helping to support afternoon/evening thunderstorms from the OH Valley into central/southern MO. Despite ample low-level moisture, relatively warm temperatures aloft will likely mitigate the overall buoyancy. Even so, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate mid-level flow could still support some bowing line segments capable of damaging gusts. Highest thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and evening is expected from central/southern IN into southern OH, with another corridor of relatively higher coverage developing across central MO later this evening as well. Both of these corridors are downstream of a previously mentioned vorticity max, and represent areas of greater severe potential.