Severe Storm Risk - Germantown, MD

There is a Slight Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUMMARY Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected across parts of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, mainly this afternoon and evening. Severe storms with a threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will also be possible across parts of the south-central High Plains. 20z Update The previous forecast remains on track with minimal changes required to the existing probability lines based on ongoing convective trends and recent model guidance. The primary outlook amendment was the introduction of 5% hail probabilities across portions of eastern Nebraska. Nebraska 12z ensemble guidance hinted at thunderstorm development across eastern NE during the 09-12 UTC period as a weak low-level cold front impinges on a plume of northward returning moisture. More recent runs of the RAP/RRFS/HRRR continue to show this potential and depict a fairly robust thermodynamic environment featuring MUCAPE values upwards of 4000 J/kg. 18 UTC RAOBS from the southern High Plains and Rockies sampled steep mid-level lapse rates that will advect eastward over the next 18 hours, and recent model solutions appear to be capturing surface moisture return well. These trends lend sufficient confidence to introduce a targeted hail risk area. Mississippi/Alabama 5% wind probabilities were removed across northern MS/AL based on recent radar trends, which depict the outflow boundary of a decaying MCS rapidly progressing south and undercutting developing convection. Strong buoyancy immediately downstream may support some localized damaging wind threat through the afternoon, but latest model guidance largely shows diminishing convective activity as the outflow surges south.