Severe Storm Risk - Raeford, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA SUMMARY Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible today across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Additional storms with isolated severe gusts will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and Four Corners region. Mid-Atlantic The remnants of Isaias are now a vertically stacked cyclone centered over Middle TN this morning. Warm sector associated with this cyclone is displaced east of the primary cyclone center, and is delineated well by the 64 deg F isodrosotherm. This isodrosotherm currently extends from the southern Delmarva Peninsula southwestward to a triple point low over the TN/NC border and then southward across central/south-central GA and the far eastern FL Panhandle. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow currently extends throughout the eastern periphery of the cyclone over the warm sector. Primary core of the cyclone is forecast to progress northeastward across the central Appalachians this afternoon/evening before continuing northeastward across VA to the Mid-Atlantic coast overnight into early tomorrow. The occluded surface and triple point lows associated with this system will shift northeastward as well. This progression will result in northward advection of the warm sector into more of eastern NC and southeast VA while the cold front pushes eastward/northeastward. Abundant cloud cover will limit heating and lapse rates will remain poor, but abundant low-level moisture will still support moderate buoyancy across the warm sector. This buoyancy will support thunderstorm development along and ahead of the cold front as it moves northeastward across the region. Moderate low to mid-level southerly/southwesterly flow will persist across the warm sector, supporting the potential for rotation/organization with any deep and persistent updrafts. As a result, isolated damaging gusts and a few brief tornadoes are possible across the region. The best overlap between buoyancy and shear is expected between 18Z and 00Z from north-central/northeast NC into central/southeast VA. Desert Southwest/Eastern Great Basin Remnants of tropical cyclone Rachel are currently centered in the CA/NV/AZ border vicinity, at the base of a broad upper trough covering much of the western CONUS. These remnants are forecast to progress northeastward today, moving quickly through the Great Basin and ending the period over central/eastern MT. At the same time, another cyclone will shift southward across the Pacific Northwest. Dynamic response to this evolution will support a belt of strong mid-level southwesterly flow from southern CA/AZ through WY into the northern High Plains. Low to mid-level moisture associated with the remnants of Rachel will spread northeastward as well. Persistent large-scale forcing for ascent and the aforementioned moisture will support scattered thunderstorms. Strong low to mid-level southwesterly flow will result in occasionally intense bowing segments capable of strong gusts, particularly in any areas that can experience filtered daytime heating. A low-probability tornado risk will also exist from this morning into the early afternoon across near the surface low over the CA/NV/AZ border intersection vicinity. Here, moist low-level southerly will elongate hodographs (as shown in current ESX VAD), resulting in a kinematic environment supportive of tornadoes. Limited buoyancy should keep any tornado threat isolated and brief.