Severe Storm Risk - Washington, DC

There is a Enhanced Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SUMMARY Clusters of storms will move across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic, with potential for widespread damaging wind. Additional thunderstorms are expected across the Great Plains Saturday afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail is also possible across the Great Plains. Synopsis Height rises will continue across the western US, with more zonal flow across the central US and upper-level troughing across the Northeast and Quebec/Ontario. A modest belt of westerly flow around 30-40 kts will move through the trough in the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A compact shortwave trough with enhanced westerly flow will move through the flow across the Central Plains. Eastern Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Activity will likely be ongoing across some portion of northern PA into northern NJ this morning. This will likely contribute to lingering cloud cover and more muted daytime heating/recovery with northern extent. South of the morning precipitation, strong daytime heating and warming is expected, with temperatures climbing into the 90s to 100s F. A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is already in place across the region from WV into VA/MD/NJ. With daytime heating, low-level lapse rates are expected to increase with moderate to strong instability by the afternoon. Deep layer shear profiles will be generally weak, with better shear to the north. Nonetheless, several thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop across the Blue Ridge Mountains/Shenandoah Valley moving north and eastward though the afternoon. These will have the potential to produce widespread damaging wind, especially if clusters can grow upscale and develop strong cold pools. Additional clusters are likely in the wake of morning convection further north. Instability will be less, but sufficient deep layer shear may support one or more clusters capable of damaging wind. Central/Southern Plains Evolution of thunderstorms across the central/southern Plains will be dependent on evolution of morning convection across northern Kansas. One or more MCVs may develop and drift south and eastward, which will have impacts on the exact region that thunderstorms redevelop by the afternoon. Guidance suggests that the corridor of highest probability of development will be across southern Kansas into northern Oklahoma. Within this region, widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to develop by the afternoon, with initial supercells capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado. These will eventually cluster and grow upscale, with a likely MCS moving south into Oklahoma by the evening and an increase in damaging wind potential. More isolated supercell development is expected from the OK/TX Panhandles northward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE. Deeply mixed profiles and sufficient deep layer shear should support potential for both large hail and damaging wind. Midwest into the lower Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley There is less confidence in evolution of afternoon thunderstorms into the Missouri Valley and western/central Ohio Valley. Moderate to strong instability will be in place with generally weak flow/deep layer shear. Guidance suggests that several clusters of thunderstorms may develop and spread eastward with damaging wind/downburst potential. This will likely be focused in more mesoscale corridors where residual outflow resides.