Weekend Weather Outlook

A slow-moving upper-level system will stall over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. this weekend, delivering a cooler, stormy pattern while the West bakes under dry, unseasonably hot conditions.

Saturday

A slow-moving upper-level low over southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes will drive an active weather pattern across much of the central United States to start the weekend. A cold front will push through the Midwest into the south-central U.S. while a stalled boundary lingers across the Southeast.

Showers and thunderstorms will become widespread from the Plains into the Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, with activity increasing during the afternoon and evening. The greatest concern for severe weather will focus from eastern Kansas into west-central Illinois. One or two organizing clusters of storms may develop in this area, bringing the potential for damaging wind gusts, especially into the evening and overnight. Large to very large hail is also possible early in storm development from Kansas into Iowa, and a few isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Repeated rounds of storms may also lead to localized flash flooding.

The Southeast and Gulf Coast will see scattered showers and thunderstorms along a stalled boundary, with heavy rain possible. In contrast, the Mid-Atlantic and much of the Northeast will remain dry, with only isolated shower activity possible late in the day across northern New England.

Cooler air will settle across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, with even colder conditions at higher elevations. In central to northern Wyoming, a rain/snow mix, including wet snow, will be possible in the tallest peaks early on Saturday. At the same time, a large ridge of high pressure will strengthen over the West. This will promote very warm to hot, above normal temperatures and dry weather.

The northern Rockies, northern Plains and Upper Midwest will be the coolest, with highs in the 50s, 60s and lower 70s, and even cooler conditions in the highest elevations. Most of the central and eastern U.S. will see seasonably warm to hot conditions, with highs in the 80s and 90s, including the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. The hottest weather will be found in the West, where widespread 90s and 100s dominate the Great Basin, Southwest and California’s interior, with triple-digit heat exceeding 105 degrees in the Desert Southwest.

Sunday
 
An upper-level low over southeastern Canada and the Great Lakes will keep an active weather pattern in place on Sunday, as a cold front pushes to the East Coast and Gulf Coast and a reinforcing cold front drops into the central U.S.

The most unsettled weather will occur across the Mid-Atlantic, where showers and thunderstorms will become widespread during the afternoon and evening as the front approaches. This region faces the greatest risk for severe weather, with storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated tornado, especially from eastern Virginia into southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Heavy downpours may also lead to localized flash flooding, particularly along the I-95 corridor.

The Southeast to the Gulf Coast and Florida will see scattered showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, with heavy rainfall possible. Parts of central Texas into Louisiana and Mississippi may also experience areas of heavy rain and flash flooding as clusters of storms develop through the afternoon and evening.

Across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and interior Northeast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur as the cold front steadily pushes eastward throughout the day.

Behind the front, cooler and less humid air will spread into the Plains, Midwest and Mississippi Valley, ushering in drier conditions. Across the Rockies and Four Corners, scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will develop, especially over higher terrain, while the northern Plains and northern Rockies remain on the cooler side with a mix of clouds and dry weather.

Meanwhile, strong high pressure will dominate the West Coast, Great Basin, and Desert Southwest, bringing another day of dry and intense heat. 

A noticeable cooldown will spread across the central U.S., with the Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys seeing highs in the 60s and 70s, and even cooler readings near the Canadian border and higher elevations. Warmer, more humid air will linger along the East Coast, Southeast and Gulf Coast, where highs reach the upper 70s through low 90s ahead of the front. Meanwhile, the West continues to sizzle, with highs in the 90s and 100s, and extreme heat of 110 to 115 degrees possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and California’s Central Valley.