A widespread drying trend afflicted much of the U.S. this week, causing drought to worsen substantially. Only a few areas saw enough beneficial moisture to improve abnormally dry and drought conditions.

West

Unfortunately, record or near-record breaking heat and largely dry weather occurred throughout the West this week. The recent heatwave has accelerated snowmelt over the past few weeks, with most of the mountains in the West reporting little to snowfall or unseasonably low snowpack. Peak runoff is occurring earlier than normal, if not already passed in some locations, raising even more concerns about reduced inflows into reservoirs moving through spring and into the summer months. Given all these factors, significant drought deterioration occurred throughout the West this week.

Most notably, an area of exceptional drought (D4) was introduced in southwestern Idaho, while there was considerable expansion of extreme drought (D3) in southwestern Idaho as well as most of Utah. Severe drought (D2) increased across parts of Utah, southern Idaho, north-central Montana and northern New Mexico. A new area of severe drought was also added to west-central Idaho. Abnormally dry and moderate drought (D0-D1) worsened in southwestern Montana, east-central Idaho, much of Arizona and northern New Mexico. Abnormal dryness (D0) expanded in far southwestern Oregon into the northern coast of California to the Bay Area along with the foothills of the Sierra Nevada in California.

Conversely, there were some localized improvements in central Montana and a portion of the Idaho Panhandle. Both areas saw severe drought decrease slightly in size.

Continued degradations are expected in the coming weeks and months due to the above normal temperatures and record low snowpack levels. Snow water equivalent values (percent of median) are currently around 55% of normal in the Pacific Northwest and 18% of normal in the Great Basin. In California, statewide snowpack is currently sitting at 20% of normal, with the southern Sierra at 32%, the central Sierra at 23% and the northern Sierra at 8%.

Despite poor snowpack conditions, California’s reservoirs remain at or above historical levels, with Lake Shasta and Lake Oroville at 113% and 123% of average, respectively. However, Lake Powell and Lake Mead in the Southwest are reporting critical low levels. Lake Powell is currently 24% full and 41% of average for this date. Lake Mead is currently 33% full and 52% of average for the date. Upstream reservoirs show mixed conditions, including Flaming Gorge (Utah) at 82% full and Navajo Lake (New Mexico) at 62% full. Meanwhile, in New Mexico, Elephant Butte is 12% full and Caballo Reservoir is 7% full. In Arizona, the Salt River system is 56% full, the Verde system is 63% full and the combined system is 63% full (compared to 70% last year).

High Plains

Like the West, the High Plains region was also plagued by unusually warm and dry weather this week. The combination of warm and dry weather, record low snowpack in the mountains of Wyoming, mounting precipitation deficits and low soil moisture/streamflows forced widespread degradation of the drought depiction to most of Wyoming and Colorado as well as from Kansas to South Dakota.

Exceptional drought (D4) expanded significantly across northwestern Colorado, while new areas of exceptional drought were added to southeastern and south-central Colorado along with southeastern Wyoming. Extreme drought (D3) also increased substantially in eastern Wyoming, western and northern Colorado, southwestern and extreme southeastern South Dakota and throughout Nebraska. Severe drought (D2) worsened in these areas as well as in parts of southern Kansas. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) across central South Dakota, Kansas, eastern Colorado and northwestern Wyoming.

There were no improvements made to the drought depiction throughout the region this week.

North Dakota remains free of drought, with just a small area of abnormally dry (D0) conditions in east-central North Dakota.

The High Plains region will also likely see degradations in the coming weeks and months, especially in the mountains of Wyoming and Colorado given the critically low snowpack. Snow water equivalent values (percent of median) are currently around 56% for the Missouri Basin, 24% for the Upper Colorado Basin, 14% for the Lower Colorado Basin, 8% for the Rio Grande Basin and 8% for the Arkansas-White-Red Basin. The total Colorado River system is currently at 36% of capacity (compared to 41% at the same time last year).

Midwest

Several quick-moving weather disturbances impacted the Midwest region this week, mainly early and late in the monitoring period. These disturbances brought snow or a rain/snow mix to northern portions of the region, while rain occurred across the southern portions. While not particularly heavy, the moisture was enough to be beneficial in parts of the Midwest and some improvements were made to the drought depiction. However, there were also some areas that saw drought worsen this week.

Improvements to east-central Minnesota, central Illinois, the northern half of Indiana and northern Ohio. Most notably, extreme drought (D3) was removed from east-central Illinois, while extreme drought (D3) contracted in northwestern Ohio. Moderate and severe drought (D1-D2) decreased elsewhere.

Drought conditions worsened across southwestern Minnesota, western Iowa, southeastern Missouri, southern Illinois and much of Kentucky. Moderate to severe drought (D2) expanded eastward into southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, while moderate to severe drought (D2) also grew in coverage across Missouri’s Bootheel. An area of moderate drought (D1) was introduced in southern Illinois. Significant expansion to abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) occurred throughout Kentucky, and a new area of severe drought (D2) was added to southwestern Kentucky.

South

The hot and dry weather pattern persisted throughout the South this week, leading to widespread degradations.

Exceptional drought (D4) increased across northern Arkansas and southern Texas, while new areas of exceptional drought (D4) were added to northwestern Mississippi and central Missouri. Severe to extreme drought (D2-D3) grew in coverage across western Tennessee, much of Arkansas into eastern and southern Texas, central Oklahoma into north-central Texas, southwestern Louisiana and from northern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Abnormal dryness to moderate drought (D0-D1) increased across eastern Tennessee and central Texas.

There were no improvements made to the drought depiction throughout the region this week.

Several locations throughout the South saw their driest 90-day period from December 31st to March 31st on record, including Brownsville, Texas, Monticello, Ark., and Jackson, Miss. In Texas, statewide reservoirs are at 73.5% full, with eastern reservoirs in good condition while many western and southern reservoirs remain below normal. This includes the Falcon Reservoir, which is only 19% full.

Southeast

Following the same weather pattern as much of the nation, very dry and unseasonably warm weather prevailed across most of the Southeast region, exacerbating drought conditions. However, some isolated light to moderate rainfall occurred in south Florida, with amounts of 1 to 3 inches.

Drought expanded and intensified across throughout the region as a result. Extreme to exceptional drought (D3-D4) expanded across southern Georgia and northern Florida. Extreme drought (D3) also worsened across western and south-central North Carolina, western South Carolina, northern Georgia, southeastern Alabama and central Florida. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) increased across far southwestern Virginia, the rest of the Carolinas, central Georgia, southeastern and northern Alabama, far western portions of the Florida Panhandle and central Florida.

Impacts are being reported in northern Florida, where low water levels are limiting recreational use of waterways on the Chipola, Santa Fe and Suwannee rivers. For the past 30-day period, precipitation deficits across most of the region ranged from 1 to 4 inches, with the greatest departures observed in southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia and far western portions of the Carolinas. Over the past six months, record dryness has been observed in Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Fla., Macon, Ga., Montgomery, Ala., and Charlotte and Raleigh, N.C.

Northeast

Similar to the Midwest, a series of disturbances moved across this week, mainly early and late in the drought monitoring period. Higher elevations and interior locations saw wet snow or a rain/snow mix, while the rest of the region just had rain. The region also reported generally near to above normal temperatures.

Improvements include central and eastern Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey and small parts of northern Maryland, western and southeastern New York, central Connecticut and eastern Massachusetts. Severe drought (D2) was removed across parts of northern Maryland and northwestern New Jersey, while severe drought (D2) decreased in size across parts of eastern and south-central Pennsylvania. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) improved elsewhere.

Over the past 30 days, precipitation was near or above normal across Pennsylvania, New York, Connecticut and western Massachusetts, while areas of New Hampshire, Vermont and Maine were below normal. Snowpack conditions continue to decline seasonally, with the Northeast reporting 37.8% snow cover (compared to 97.8% last month), an average depth of 2.7 inches and a maximum depth of 73.6 inches.

Looking Ahead

Looking ahead to the next drought monitor period, a more active and unsettled weather pattern is forecast for much of the U.S. Several low pressure systems will move coast-to-coast, allowing for multiple chances of precipitation.

Expect snow in the mountains and higher elevations throughout much of the Western U.S., while snow or a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain will occur in the north-central U.S. and parts of the interior Northeast. Rain will fall in the lower elevations and coastal areas of the West, with rain and thunderstorms for much of the Plains, Lower Midwest, Southeast and southern portions of the Northeast. Strong to severe thunderstorms could also develop at times.

Precipitation amounts will generally range from 2 to 4 inches for eastern parts of the southern Plains, Midwest and Northeast. The most significant rainfall is forecast along a corridor stretching from eastern Texas through the Lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and High Plains are likely to see lighter amounts, generally between 0.5 and 2 inches, with locally higher totals in portions of the Dakotas.

In the West, light-to-moderate precipitation is expected, with the greatest amounts in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, and southern Oregon. Higher elevations, including the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, northern Great Basin, and central to northern Rockies, are likely to receive snowfall. In contrast, dry conditions are expected to dominate much of the Southwest, including southern California, southern Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

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