Weather Alerts For Connelly Springs, NC

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUMMARY Scattered wind damage is possible with thunderstorms across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail may occur with thunderstorms in North Dakota with more sporadic occurrences of hail and damaging winds from the southern High Plains into the Tennessee Valley and in parts of the northern Rockies. Synopsis A series of weak mid-level disturbances (some of convective origin) will contribute modest trough amplification from the OH Valley into the TN and lower MS Valleys on Sunday while another disturbance approaches the Mid-Atlantic from the west. Elsewhere, a short-wave trough and associated 50+ kt mid-level jet streak will move through southern parts of British Columbia and Alberta with downstream height falls overspreading the northern Rockies into northern High Plains. At the surface, a weak front is forecast to become established from an area of low pressure over OH into the DE River Valley. A secondary surface low may materialize over the Delmarva near the intersection of the front and a lee trough extending south-southwest into the Carolina Piedmont. Farther west, a cold front will settle southeast into the northern High Plains. Upper Ohio Valley into Mid-Atlantic and the Carolinas A hot and very moist air mass is expected to exist from the vicinity of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ south along the lee trough into the Carolinas with MLCAPE increasing to 1500-3000+ J/kg. Convergence near the surface low and attending boundaries may be augmented by weak forcing for ascent ahead of a subtle short-wave trough to yield scattered thunderstorm development by early to mid afternoon. The strongest deep-layer shear of 30-35 kt is forecast in the vicinity of the surface front in eastern PA and NJ, where episodic supercell structures are possible with an attendant risk for marginally severe hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, the expectation is for pulse-type and multicell storms to merge into clusters or line segments with the hot, well-mixed PBL and resultant, steep low-level lapse rates enhancing damaging wind potential from mid afternoon into evening. Damaging wind potential is expected to be more sporadic with southward extent into the Carolinas owing to decreased vertical shear and forcing for ascent. Farther west in the upper OH Valley, a remnant MCV may focus an additional cluster of afternoon thunderstorms near the surface low and associated front. Both vertical shear and instability are expected to be weaker than the segment of the front nearer to the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Nonetheless, some 00Z CAM guidance suggests the potential for brief cold-pool organization with an associated risk for locally damaging wind gusts. Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Modest height falls are forecast Sunday afternoon into evening to the east and southeast of the short-wave trough mentioned in the synopsis. And while the boundary-layer is forecast to remain relatively dry ahead of the cold front, the presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will largely contribute to pockets of moderate instability with MLCAPE as high as 1500-2000 J/kg in parts of northern ND. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected by mid afternoon in the vicinity of the front in southwest MT with additional storms expected by late afternoon or early evening along the boundary in western into north-central ND. The MT storms are expected to be high based atop a well-mixed boundary layer with severe wind gusts being the predominant hazard. Stronger instability and vertical shear are forecast in ND, leading to the potential for a few supercells capable of large to very large hail. Southern Plains into Gulf Coast States and Tennessee Valley One or multiple outflow boundaries remnant from overnight convection are expected to focus diurnally enhanced thunderstorms from portions of the TN and lower MS Valleys into the Red River Valley Sunday afternoon and early evening. In addition, the models indicate an MCV originating from a large MCS ongoing as of late evening from southwest MO into southeast OK and northeast TX will move into the lower MS Valley by afternoon, potentially aiding in the thunderstorm development there. The steepest lapse rates are forecast across the southern High Plains with increasing boundary-layer moisture content into the lower MS and TN Valleys, both of which will contribute to a moderately unstable environment by afternoon across the pre-frontal warm sector. Vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak across the warm sector, which should limit the potential for storm organization. A possible exception is if the outflow boundary stalls or retreats into southern OK in closer proximity to stronger northwest flow aloft. In that scenario, a corridor of higher supercell potential could materialize, requiring higher hail probabilities and a level 2/Slight Risk. Aside from that scenario, pulse and multicell storms appear likely with a risk for sporadic large hail and severe wind gusts in the steeper lapse rate environment in the southern Plains with mainly damaging winds expected in the lower MS and TN Valleys.