The nation’s midsection was under the influence of a strong high pressure system throughout the week, while two upper-level weather disturbances were settled on both the West and East coasts. This translated into unseasonably cool weather across both coasts, while near to above normal temperatures were reported in the Central U.S. Beneficial rainfall led to widespread drought improvements in parts of the High Plains, South, Southeast and Northeast, with mixed results being reported in the West and Midwest.

West

An upper-level weather system stalled over the Western region for much of the drought monitoring period. However, the last few days saw the weather warm up and dry out. Unseasonably cool temperatures were largely found across the Southwest, while near to above normal temperatures were reported in the Northwest. Precipitation was also hit-or-miss throughout the region. Rain and even some mountain snow was reported for the northern half of the region, while dry weather prevailed for the southern half.

Despite some beneficial moisture, there were degradations to the drought depiction in the Northwest, northern California and the Great Basin. This was due to lack of snowmelt and low streamflows starting to be felt. Most notably, extreme drought (D3) expanded from southwestern Idaho into southeastern Oregon and northeastern Nevada. More localized areas of extreme drought (D3) also increased in size across Oregon. Severe drought (D2) worsened in northern and western Oregon as well as southwestern Utah into far eastern Nevada and northeastern Arizona. Eastern Montana saw both severe and moderate drought (D2-D3) increase. Moderate drought (D1) expanded in northwestern California, while abnormal dryness (D0) increased in southwestern Washington.

There was enough rain in central Montana, far northeastern Utah and far eastern New Mexico for some localized improvements. A small area of exceptional drought (D4) was removed from northeastern Utah, while extreme drought (D3) contracted in central Montana and far eastern New Mexico. Severe drought (D2) also had some limited improvements in central Montana.

High Plains

Stormy weather brought soaking rains to much of the High Plains region last week, with the highest coverage and accumulations found in parts of Kansas and Nebraska. While beneficial, this precipitation competed with above normal temperatures, which maintained high evapotranspirative demands. Accordingly, areas that missed out on significant rainfall experienced some degradation, including in portions of the Dakotas and far northern Nebraska. However, there were some drought reductions made across much of Kansas and eastern Nebraska. Beneficial moisture also brought some relief to portions of the Colorado Plains and a few spots in Wyoming, while drier conditions resulted in deterioration in southwestern Colorado.

An area of exceptional drought (D4) was introduced to northeastern Nebraska, and areas of exceptional drought (D4) persist in western and southwest Nebraska. Severe drought (D2) expanded in east-central South Dakota and southwestern Colorado. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) worsened in western South Dakota.

Conversely, extreme drought (D3) contracted across southwestern South Dakota, central Nebraska, south-central and southwestern Kansas and northwestern and southeastern Colorado. Extreme drought (D3) was also removed from south-central Wyoming. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) improved in southeastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska, western and central Kansas, eastern Colorado and west-central Wyoming. Abnormal dryness (D0) contracted in northeastern South Dakota and southeastern North Dakota.

Midwest

There were some light showers that occurred in parts of Minnesota, Iowa and central Wisconsin and along the Ohio River Valley. Meanwhile, mostly dry weather prevailed across the rest of the Midwest region. This dryness combined with hot temperatures continued to stress lawns and spring crops as well as reduce streamflows and topsoil moisture. As a result, widespread deterioration to the drought depiction was reported last week.

Two areas of moderate drought (D1) were added, including from southern Wisconsin into northern Illinois and then western Wisconsin into southeastern Minnesota. Abnormal dryness (D0) either expanded or was introduced to much of Minnesota, Iowa, northeastern Missouri, most of Wisconsin, northern and central Illinois and northwestern Indiana.

The exception was southern Missouri, far southern Illinois, far southern Indiana, and most of Kentucky. Heavy rainfall from the second half of May combined with additional rain and thunderstorms this last week continued to improve drought conditions. A part of northern Kentucky even saw a 2-category improvement this week! Severe drought (D2) was almost completely removed from Kentucky, with moderate drought (D1) also contracting. Southern Missouri reported improvements to abnormal dryness (D0) and moderate to extreme drought (D1-D3).

Absent a shift towards a wetter pattern, this Midwest region is vulnerable to further rapid deterioration due to high evapotranspirative demand this time of year.

South

Soaking rains and thunderstorms were seen throughout most of the South last week. Some spots of the Lower Mississippi Valley picked up 6+ inches of rain last week! This beneficial moisture combined with heavy rain during the last half of May led to widespread improvements throughout the region. Southern Texas even saw a 2-category improvement. The exception was western parts of Oklahoma that were much drier throughout the week.

Most notably, two areas of exceptional drought (D4) in northern and southeastern Arkansas contracted significantly, while a small area of exceptional drought was removed in northeastern Mississippi. Extreme drought (D3) decreased in size across Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi and the Texas Panhandle, with a small area of extreme drought removed from southern Texas. Moderate to severe drought (D1-D2) reported improvements in western Arkansas, western Mississippi, northern Louisiana and eastern/southern Texas. Rainy weather helped areas with abnormal dryness (D0) in eastern Mississippi, southern Louisiana and most of Texas.

Unfortunately, western Oklahoma saw extreme and exceptional drought (D3-D4) worsen this week.

Although conditions have improved overall across the Southern region, widespread extreme to exceptional drought (D3-D4) continues across northern Texas and western Oklahoma, and long-term drought impacts to groundwater remain a concern heading into the summer month across the whole region.

Southeast

Another stormy week across the Southeast led to widespread drought reductions as many locations across the Deep South ended the month of May with 150 to 300% of normal precipitation. The heaviest rains fell across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, portions of Georgia and the piedmont of South Carolina.

Improvements: Most of Alabama, most of Georgia, most of South Carolina, western/southern North Carolina, central Virginia, northern and southwestern Florida.

Exceptional drought (D4) was removed from far southern South Carolinas and southeastern Georgia, while exceptional drought contracted significantly across northern Florida. Extreme drought (D3) improved substantially in central Virginia, southern North Carolina, eastern South Carolina, most of Georgia and parts of the Florida Peninsula. Severe drought (D2) decreased in size in southeastern Virginia, southeastern and western North Carolina, most of South Carolina and Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, while severe drought was removed from southeastern Alabama. Abnormal dryness and moderate drought (D0-D1) were also improved throughout the rest of Alabama.

Despite all these improvements, significant long-term impacts to lake levels and groundwater remain, especially along the coastal plain of Georgia and the Carolinas, where widespread extreme drought (D3) remains in place, and along the Suwannee River Basin, where exceptional drought (D4) remains entrenched. Persistent above normal precipitation over an extended period of time is needed to significantly overturn the effects of the long-term drought.

Northeast

A mid-week storm brought soaking rains across northern New England along with late high-elevation snow, primarily across the White Mountains. This precipitation, locally exceeding 3 inches, was sufficient to generate additional reductions in drought and abnormal dryness across central New Hampshire and southern Maine. Locally heavy rainfall was also observed across northern West Virginia and far western Maryland, prompting additional reductions.

Elsewhere, mostly dry weather prevailed during the week, including the Mid-Atlantic states and southern New England. Temperatures during the week were unseasonably cool, keeping evapotranspirative demand lower than normal, which helped prevent any significant deterioration. However, there were a few spots that saw degradations in southern New England.

Northern West Virginia reported a 2-category improvement, with abnormal dryness and moderate (D0-D1) either being removed or improved substantially. Abnormal dryness and moderate to severe drought (D0-D2) improved in eastern Pennsylvania, southeastern New York, southwestern Connecticut, much of New Hampshire and western Maine.

Degradations were made to severe drought (D2) in eastern Mass and moderate drought (D1) in south-central Maine.

Looking Ahead

Over the next week, much of the Eastern U.S. is expected to turn drier while temperatures rise to above normal levels. A slow-moving storm system crossing the Plains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes could bring significant rainfall to parts of Iowa and southwestern Wisconsin, with some areas potentially receiving more than 1.5 inches. However, most surrounding areas are forecast to receive lighter amounts that may not be enough to offset increased moisture demand from hot weather and growing crops, particularly in Illinois, Indiana, and northern Minnesota.

In the Southeast, weather patterns are expected to shift back toward typical summer thunderstorms, though rainfall totals will likely be lower than those seen in recent weeks. South Florida should continue to see frequent sea-breeze-driven storms. Meanwhile, the West is expected to remain mostly dry, aside from some precipitation in the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is also forecast to receive limited rainfall, increasing concerns about the return of short-term drought conditions.

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Source: U.S. Drought Monitor

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