Weather Alerts For Iowa City, IA

There is a Marginal Severe Storm Risk for your location. Continue reading for today's outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. -------------------- National Severe Storm Outlook THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SUMMARY Thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains, and from the Missouri Valley into the upper Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts of the northern High Plains and from North Carolina into southern Virginia. Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley At mid-levels, heights will fall today across much of the north-central U.S. as a subtle shortwave trough moves east-southeastward across the region. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward into the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley by afternoon. Along and ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. As surface temperatures warm, moderate instability will develop along this west-southwest to east-northeast corridor. Low-level convergence will be maximized along and near the front, which will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Scattered thunderstorms will form in the afternoon and move east-southeastward across the instability corridor, with convective development continuing through much of the evening. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates, will support a threat for severe wind gusts. The potential for severe wind will be greatest with any line segment that can become sustained and organized. Although there is some uncertainty concerning where the greatest threat will be, it seems possible that a damaging wind swath could occur in parts of southern Nebraska this evening, where a 30 percent wind probability has been added. Further northeast into central Iowa and south-central Wisconsin, convective coverage is expected to be a bit more widely spaced. However, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for a severe threat as low-level lapse rates and instability become maximized late this afternoon. The primary threat will be for severe wind gusts, with the threat being associated with short intense line segments. Northern High Plains At the surface, a lee trough will develop today from eastern Wyoming into eastern Montana. Along and near the trough, surface dewpoints in the 50s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will be relatively weak, low-level convergence near the trough will aid convective initiation. Thunderstorms will also develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the lower elevations. The instability, combined with moderate deep-layer shear and steep low to mid-level lapse rates will likely support a potential for isolated severe gusts.